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Stratfor Forecasts Geopolitical Risks for 2018

3 MINS READDec 26, 2017 | 02:40 GMT

AUSTIN, TX – Stratfor, the world’s leading geopolitical intelligence platform, identifies the key global trends and constraints that will shape world developments in the 2018 Annual Forecast. The forecast, now available on Stratfor Worldview, outlines which geopolitical risks companies, governments and globally engaged individuals should focus upon in this increasingly complex international environment, including the emerging coalition between China and Russia; the United States’ pursuit of an aggressive trade agenda; a global oil market recovery; and the threat of conflict with North Korea.

“Though we cannot rule out a preventative strike against North Korea entirely, the threat of a messy war in East Asia that shoves the world back into economic recession is a steep price to pay,” said Stratfor Vice President of Strategic Analysis Rodger Baker. “It’s more likely the U.S. will resign itself to the reality of North Korea possessing a viable nuclear deterrent, however uncomfortable politically that may be.”

Stratfor forecasts this acceptance to trigger a new and unstable era of nuclear deterrence, further complicated by the emerging partnership between Russia and China. Moscow and Beijing will not be the only parties developing new relationships or re-evaluating old alliances, though. “Economic interdependence, mutual distrust and unreliable security guarantees will encourage ostensible allies to hedge against one another for their own protection,” said Stratfor Vice President of Global Analysis Reva Goujon. “Such fluid relationships will come to define the global order in 2018 and beyond.”

Stratfor’s forecast serves as a guide to the underlying forces and constraints that influence global decision makers. The key geopolitical risks and trends highlighted in the 2018 forecast include:

  • Containment of a nuclear North Korea
  • Deepening collaboration between China and Russia
  • Increasing U.S. unilateralism in trade
  • A hard-line U.S. policy toward Iran
  • A global oil market recovery
  • The next phase of China’s reform agenda
  • Debate on eurozone reform
  • Persistent populism in Latin America

These geopolitical trends will shape how governments, corporations and other organizations behave in 2018’s increasingly tense international environment. Stratfor’s forecast, updated with strategic analysis throughout the year, is designed to help individual, team and enterprise members focus on what’s truly significant, mitigate upcoming risks and identify future opportunities. In addition to the global trends, the forecast includes in-depth, forward-looking analysis for each region.

The complete 2018 Annual Forecast is now available at Worldview.Stratfor.com. Stratfor’s 2017 Forecast correctly anticipated that a threatened U.S.-China trade war would not materialize; NAFTA would endure in spite of tensions; the Iran nuclear deal would hold despite deteriorating U.S.-Iran relations; and the degradation of the Islamic State would drive a rise in insurgent and terrorist activity.

About Stratfor

As the world's leading geopolitical intelligence platform, Stratfor brings valuable context to global events, empowering businesses, governments and individuals to more confidently navigate their way through an increasingly complex international environment. By leveraging a deep understanding of history, politics and geography in conjunction with our unique methodology, Stratfor delivers informed perspectives on today's events and develops a more accurate view of the future. Information about individual, team and enterprise membership is available at Stratfor.com.

For more information, contact:
Joshua Cook
Stratfor Director of Public Relations

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