Stratfor, the world’s leading geopolitical intelligence firm, forecasts that Iranian brinkmanship, Brexit uncertainty and the ongoing U.S.-China trade war will drive international economic and political risk in the fourth quarter of 2019. Stratfor’s 2019 Fourth Quarter Forecast builds upon the firm’s 2019 Annual Forecast and helps Fortune 500 companies, governments and globally engaged professionals across industries understand key global trends so they can measure the impact of trade frictions, identify potential supply chain disruptions, mitigate risk and anticipate new opportunities. We enter this quarter with several key negotiations pending, a world bracing for military confrontation in the Persian Gulf and yet more unpredictability from the White House.
"We have been warning of this escalatory behavior by Iran for some time,” said Stratfor Vice President of Global Analysis Reva Goujon. “As cornered as Iran has been by sanctions, it is now holding the global economy hostage through these recent attacks and Iran is prepared to absorb the risk of a limited military clash with the United States and Saudi Arabia."
Additional geopolitical developments Stratfor forecasts for the fourth quarter include:
- What 2020 means for Donald Trump’s trade strategy and the global GDP impact of the president’s trade wars;
- The looming possibility of a no-deal Brexit, the resignation of Prime Minister Boris Johnson and ongoing trade uncertainty in both the United Kingdom and the European Union;
- Persistent unrest in Hong Kong unlikely to rise to the point of drawing a heavy-handed intervention by Beijing.
Countries also highlighted in the Stratfor forecast include Venezuela, Germany, Japan, Mexico and Vietnam.
Stratfor has a reputation for accurate forecasting. Stratfor’s correct Q3 calls include:
- An increasingly hard-line Israeli political establishment would respond to provocation from Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran and Syria with swift retaliation;
- Russia would take advantage of its growing position in Africa and Latin America to further develop economic, diplomatic and military/technical relationships;
- North Korea would continue missile testing in a manner calculated to exert pressure but not run afoul of the White House.
The complete 2019 Fourth Quarter Forecast is now available to Stratfor enterprise, team and individual members at Stratfor Worldview.