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Forecasts

Forecasts are our essential product. They provide a glimpse into the future by predicting what’s coming over months, years and decades.

Quarterly Forecasts

Trade will be at the forefront of many leaders' minds this quarter.
If the study of geopolitics focuses on the structural forces shaping the international system, then domestic elections only rarely matter. Leaders tend to bend to their environment, not the other way around. And yet in the final months of 2016 the United States, still the world's only superpower, will choose a president in an election that will shape U.S. foreign policy more than usual.
The Brexit referendum, and the fallout from it, will be among the most heavily scrutinized themes of the next quarter. And though it may have been the most visible confirmation of the European Union's disintegration, the seeds of its departure were sowed years earlier.
It's tempting to blame Syria for all the geopolitical intrigue that will characterize the second quarter of 2016. It is the home of a protracted civil war, the source of Europe's migrant crisis and a major complication in Turkey's struggle with the Kurds. But in truth, Syria is merely a pawn in a larger game played by more powerful countries, each with their own designs in the Middle East.
Russia, not happy with the United States creeping too close in its backyard, is now escalating its presence in Syria and potentially Iraq.
Stratfor said at the beginning of 2015 that this would be the year when Europe would be knocked out of complacency. The third quarter is when the harsh reality of an unraveling eurozone confronts Berlin and the eurozone at large.
The United States is reducing its exposure in the Middle East while refocusing attention on the European borderlands with Russia.
It has not been an easy year for Russian President Vladimir Putin, but Russia is nonetheless in a strong position over Ukraine.

Annual Forecasts

The main theme of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's campaign was retrenchment, the idea that the United States will pull back from overseas obligations, get others to carry more of the weight of their own defense, and let the United States focus on boosting economic competitiveness.
The United States and Russia are still locked in an intractable standoff. Nationalism is resurfacing in Europe. The price of oil and other commodities are low. Chinese consumption is falling.
2014 was the year in which the world was finally shaken out of complacency. Ukraine triggered Russia's inevitable confrontation with the United States and Europe. Economic malaise in Europe became impossible to ignore. An intensifying anti-corruption drive in China exposed how far and deep the Chinese leadership is willing to go manage dissent.
A Tesco distribution plant in December 2014 in Reading, England. In the lead up to Christmas, Tesco's busiest time of the year, 13,000 staff worked around the clock at 28 distribution centers across the United Kingdom.
The rules of the game are changing in the international system. In 2013, we will see that denial of that change is waning.
A statue of the euro symbol by German artist Ottman Hoerl stands in front of European Central Bank headquarters in Berlin.
A line of U.S. Army armored vehicles lines up at Camp Virginia near the capital of Kuwait as soldiers pull out of service in Iraq.
A Russian missile launcher rolls through Moscow's outskirts while rehearsing for a parade.

Decade Forecasts

The United States will continue to be the major economic, political and military power in the world but will be less engaged than in the past. Its low rate of exports, its increasing energy self-reliance and its experiences over the last decade will cause it to be increasingly cautious about economic and military involvement in the world.
Stratfor Worldview

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