No U.S./Israeli War with Iran
There will be no U.S./Israeli war with Iran in 2012. Iran will continue trying to expand its sphere of influence in the region, but it will be operating under heavy constraints. Iran's Gulf Arab neighbors will band together against Tehran instead of reaching an accommodation. There will be no breakthrough in negotiations with the United States. In the absence of an unlikely foreign intervention in Syria, the al Assad regime will not collapse this year.Evaluation
We forecast the spread of the Tuareg insurgency but failed to anticipate the Mali coup. When the coup took place, we said that the Malian army would be unable to recover territorial control in northern Mali and that external military intervention activity would build.
In the interest of denying sanctuary to al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, the Malian army and neighboring African governments will receive Western backing for a military intervention in Mali. The heavily constrained military intervention will roll out gradually and will expose conflicting interests with emerging regional power Algeria.