Zimbabwe's Political Dynamics
Video Transcript:
Video Transcript
Zimbabwe is gearing up for a national referendum to be held March 16 on whether to adopt a new constitution. The referendum is part of a political process that is likely to be followed by presidential and parliamentary elections, possibly as early as July.
Campaigning for re-election is the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front party led by President Robert Mugabe. Though 89 years old and having governed Zimbabwe since its independence from the United Kingdom in 1980, Mugabe continues to thoroughly command his party and government. The new constitution, if passed, would introduce a two-term presidential term limit. But this limit does not apply retroactively, so Mugabe could still serve as president through his 99th birthday.
Mugabe’s main opponent is the Morgan Tsvangirai-led Movement for Democratic Change, a party that emerged in the 1990s with its primary base of support among urban organized labor. A near victory by Tsvangirai’s party at the previous election held in 2008 resulted in a period of political protest. Negotiations to resolve the impasse led to the formation of a coalition government. Tsvangirai was made Prime Minister, a newly created position, and his party secured control of several ministerial portfolios including finance as well as labor, economic planning, and constitutional and parliamentary affairs.
Zimbabwe’s ruling party is conducting an elections campaign likely to ensure it avoids a repeat of the 2008 results in which it nearly lost. Motivating the Zimbabwe National African Union-Patriotic Front is not just a desire to retain perks that come with being in government. It's also to make sure they are not vulnerable to potential prosecution for wrong-doings possibly committed during their rule. The Zimbabwe National African Union-Patriotic Front is thus compelled to control all hard-power portfolios such as the security and legal portfolios. It will share impotent Cabinet positions that do not compromise their ability to finance and secure their governance.
While no date is as of yet locked in for national elections, the political parties in Zimbabwe are focusing on the third quarter for elections to be held. Opinion polls in Zimbabwe show Mugabe leading Tsvangirai. The Zimbabwean ruling party also received a boost this week from the South African ruling party, the African National Congress, stating its preference for the Mugabe-led party to win reelection because of its proven experience and knowledge. The South African government likely holds a concern in common with other southern African governments such as Mozambique, Namibia and Angola about seeing labor-based movements successfully challenging nationalist and liberation-era parties for power. Tsvangirai and his Movement for Democratic Change are distrusted by these other ruling party elite not wanting to see their grip on power challenged by a start-up movement not grounded in a liberation struggle.
Winning re-election does not mean Mugabe will serve out a full subsequent term in office. Mugabe is in a state of weakening health, and he does face presidential aspirants from within his party, such as Vice President Joyce Mujuru as well as Defense Minister Emerson Mnangagwa. But Zimbabwe’s ruling party, and most of its neighbors in southern Africa, can agree that ensuring a re-election victory is their near-term imperative.
