Violent Aftermath to Egypt's Political Changes
Video Transcript:
Unrest continued in Egypt on Monday as at least 51 were killed and more than 400 were injured in clashes between Egyptian soldiers and Muslim Brotherhood supporters. Meanwhile, the diverse coalition of interests that joined with the military to force Morsi's removal from office has already begun to fracture. As different political groups compete for political influence, violence and instability will continue to reign in Egypt. The military will work with its new interim president, Adly Mansour, to try to restore order to the country, but it will face numerous challenges.
The clash between the army and the Muslim Brotherhood supporters happened outside a Republican Guard facility in the Nasr City district of Cairo, which has been a locus of pro-Morsi support during this entire episode of political upheaval and popular unrest. It is unclear what instigated the clash, with both sides blaming the other. Ultimately though, the precise sequences of events is immaterial. The reality is now that such violence undermines the military's roadmap for Egypt's political future, and is worsening an already tense situation.
The most notable fallout thus far from the incident is that Egypt's second-largest Islamist group -- the Salafist al-Nour party -- has announced that in response, it will withdraw from discussions about the formation of a new interim government in Egypt. The withdrawal comes after Al-Nour said on Sunday that it opposed the appointment of Mohamed ElBaradei as vice president. Al-Nour had originally been a part of the coalition that endorsed the military's actions on July 3, but that unity is already fraying at the seams.
In response, the National Salvation Front, a conglomerate of secular opposition parties coordinated by Mohamed ElBaradei, has condemned the violence. And Egypt's interim president, Adly Mansour, has ordered the formation of a judicial committee to investigate the episode. These measures by themselves though will not be able to quell the significant backlash to the military's actions and this most recent incident of violence.
The Freedom and Justice Party, the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, has also condemned the violence. In a statement, the group called for a general uprising in Egypt and for the international community to intervene to prevent what it called "future massacres." That said, it is important to keep in mind that the Brotherhood is not looking for an armed conflict. The group's inflammatory rhetoric is in keeping with a strategy that will try to force the Brotherhood's opponents to negotiate it with and offer political concessions that will allow the Brotherhood to save face.
But such statements do not happen in a vacuum, and there are forces in Egypt that will try to capitalize on this kind of instability and rhetoric. Some elements of the Brotherhood and other Islamist groups could be radicalized by the recent coup, seeing it as evidence that engaging in mainstream politics is ineffective. As if to underscore this point, the Brotherhood's Cairo headquarters were ordered closed today by Egypt's prosecution after security officials claimed to have found a significant cache of weapons. There have also already been multiple security incidents in the Sinai Peninsula since the July 3 coup, including the bombing of a natural gas pipeline connecting Egypt to Jordan on July 6 and multiple attacks on military checkpoints.
The Muslim Brotherhood will continue to try to pressure the military and its transitional government by maintaining its presence in the streets. This strategy will continue to bring pro-Morsi supporters into close contact with the military and security forces, making clashes such as the one today increasingly more likely, and will also give radical elements in Egyptian society an opening to engage in more serious violence. Such violence will also put pressure on the various political constituencies that united in their dissatisfaction with Morsi, and will undermine the military's attempts to restore a semblance of stability to Egypt.
