Venezuela's Next Political Transition
Video Transcript:
Video Transcript
More than two decades after Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's unsuccessful coup attempt and 15 years after Chavez assumed the presidency, Venezuela is on the verge of yet another watershed transition. Chavez has not been seen by the public in nearly two months. The economy is once again in shambles. All the major stakeholders are in a wait-and-see mode. Some sort of transition is imminent and perhaps inevitable, but it may take years to fully unfold.
In the late 1980s, President Carlos Andres Perez adopted an austere neoliberal reform package that made life intolerable for the Venezuelan masses. These reforms culminated in the elimination of gasoline subsidies, which sparked the wave of riots in 1989 known as the "Caracazo." Thousands of people were killed, and the country descended into lawlessness. This period of intense socioeconomic turbulence was a major wake up call for Venezuela.
On Feb. 4, 1992, Lt. Col. Hugo Chavez Frias answered that call and led a premature coup attempt aiming to topple the Perez government. Despite its failure, the coup attempt catapulted Chavez into the national limelight and made him an overnight sensation. A mere six years later, Chavez's revolution materialized peacefully and democratically when he was elected president. He has ruled Venezuela ever since.
Fifteen years later, Venezuela appears to be entering into yet another major transition phase. The government cannot sustain the economic and political status quo. Oil production has stagnated. Major infrastructure failures are commonplace. The currency is sharply overvalued, and food shortages have exacerbated economic hardships.
Any one of Venezuela's many issues, if handled incorrectly, could trigger a political shift. Like the Caracazo, adjustments to the existing system could spark significant social unrest. That said, a true shift in Venezuela away from Chavez's hard-line policies would likely be more gradual and take place over many years.
Chavez has radically redefined Venezuelan politics. Even if the opposition eventually comes to power, it has promised to maintain the hallmarks of Chavez's tenure: strong redistributive policies and high social expenditures. To afford such outlays, a political incumbent may consider improving the investment climate to allow for more foreign investment and more stable sources of financing. Not a single actor in the mainstream political establishment advocates for returning to the sort of economic system that characterized Venezuela before Chavez's rise to power. Thus, this transition will most likely be a result of a gradual shift punctuated by an election, not by a military coup.
After the failure of his 1992 coup, Chavez made a now-infamous speech in which he declared that the objectives of the revolution had failed… "for now." After 15 years of consecutive rule, a shift in Venezuela may be on hold -- for now -- but may be inevitable in the long run.
