U.S. Using India to Pressure Pakistan (Dispatch)
Video Transcript:
Video Transcript:
U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said June 7 that drone strikes will continue in Pakistan and that U.S. officials are reaching the limits of their patience with Pakistan over the safe havens it has provided to militants. Panetta’s stern message for Pakistan stood in marked contrast to his previous day’s meetings in India, where he boasted of a fast-developing strategic partnership between Washington and New Delhi.
Panetta is performing a classic American balancing act on the subcontinent by using its relationship with India to pressure Pakistan into cooperation. The problem for the U.S. is that cautiously playing the India card, especially in the current geopolitical context, is going to have a marginal effect in influencing Pakistan’s behavior.
For the United States to follow through with its exit strategy for Afghanistan, the U.S. cannot avoid a negotiation with the two primary players in the conflict – Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban. A lot of critical disagreements are preventing that negotiation from moving forward, particularly when it comes to Pakistan’s desire to halt U.S. unilateral drone strikes on Pakistani soil. From the U.S. perspective, there wouldn’t be a need for those drone strikes if Pakistan upheld its end of the bargain of flushing out high-value targets from its territory instead of protecting them.
In trying to break that deadlock, the U.S. is attempting to penetrate a deeper fear in the Pakistani psyche -- the idea that once the US withdraws from Afghanistan and no longer regards Pakistan as a strategic partner, Pakistan will be left to fend for itself against its larger and more powerful U.S.-backed Indian neighbor.
But that message doesn’t seem to be carrying the same weight that it used to. The reality of a U.S.-India strategic partnership has already largely sunk in in Islamabad. Pakistan can see that India is a democracy of more than a billion people with largely complimentary business, political and military interests as the U.S. Therefore, India is going to have a strategic working relationship with Washington one way or another. Pakistan can also see that India is not willing to serve merely as a proxy for U.S. interests and is looking for strategic recognition in its own right.
At this point in time, Pakistan’s strongest point of leverage in dealing with the U.S. is its deeply embedded ties to the conflict in Afghanistan. This is an arena where India simply cannot compete. India may have a centuries-long historical connection with Afghanistan, but the British-drawn boundaries of the modern day subcontinent do not permit India the level of access that Pakistan has to this landlocked country.
Moreover, Pakistan likely cannot help but notice the U.S. caveating its every move with the Indians. For example, India has on numerous occasions announced its plans to train Afghan military and security forces. In Pakistan’s mind, this would raise the specter of India building a military footprint in Pakistan’s northwestern periphery. But Panetta went out of his way to downplay this issue during his visit to India. He said that the media reports on the training issue were exaggerated and that any such training would take place in India, not Afghanistan.
The caution that the U.S. is exercising in highlighting its ties with India will not go unnoticed in Pakistan. For now, Pakistan -- through its intelligence, political and militant links to Afghanistan -- has the U.S. by the hook in the negotiations over a post-U.S. Afghanistan settlement. This leverage may not have much value in the long run, but Pakistan is going to use it while it’s got it. And as long as this reality exists, Pakistan cannot be expected to break a sweat over U.S.-India ties.
