Update on the Israeli-Hamas Conflict (Agenda)
Video Transcript:
Editor’s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition technology. Therefore, Stratfor cannot guarantee their complete accuracy.
Video Transcript:
Colin Chapman: Brokering a cease-fire in the latest bloody conflict between Israel and Hamas is as much about ensuring it can be enforced as stopping the bloodshed. At the heart of the problem are the long-range rockets supplied by Iran that can now reach Jerusalem and Tel Aviv and whose success has been limited only because of Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system.
Welcome to Agenda. I'm Colin Chapman and with me this week is Stratfor's Vice President of Global Analysis Reva Bhalla. Reva, should there be a cease-fire, what would need to be the essential elements for it to work?
Reva Bhalla: Well remember Israel's core concern is Hamas' possession of these long-range Fajr-5 rockets, which are capable of reaching the Israeli heartland -- cities like Tel Aviv and like Jerusalem. And so Israel cannot compromise on this demand to remove those rockets from Hamas' and any of Gaza entity like PIJ's, Palestinian Islamic Jihad's, possession, not only to remove them and neutralize that threat but to also prevent further weapons transfers from getting into Gaza. Now that is going to involve Egypt because Egypt is directly related to this conflict. They've allegedly been turning a blind eye to these weapons transfers and so now the question is can Israel trust Egypt to secure this border, especially on the Palestinian side, we've got demands to open the border. And secondly, can Israel trust its own intelligence on the supply of these rockets. There has already been one major intelligence failure committed: that the rockets got into Gaza in the first place. So is Israel prepared to commit another intelligence failure if it's not sure whether these rockets are going to be removed or not and whether it's going to have to mobilize again. These are all questions that Israel is dealing with and why this negotiation is very constrained. It needs a way to verify that supply of rockets and it's going to need a third party to monitor that.
Colin: Reva, it was seem then that any negotiations won't be quick. It could drag on and on.
Reva: Well these are very hard questions to answer and again Israel has to decide how much it can actually trust Egypt. Now we know that the Muslim Brotherhood has been in the diplomatic spotlight in leading this negotiation, but far more important, we've seen old intelligence hands leading this negotiation behind the scenes on the Egyptian side. And that's really critical because Israel is still dealing with guys that it trusts from the Mubarak days. And those are also guys that the Americans trust. But again, can Israel trust Egypt overall to make sure that these rockets don't fall into Hamas' hands again. And so this is going to be the question that keeps coming up over and over again and which is why we've seen, you know, every time we see a flurry of rumors saying that a cease-fire is imminent, then we see Israel drop back and say, "no, we don't agreed to terms." And so we're going to see a lot of this back and forth.
Colin: Well how would you answer that question you posed? Can Egypt be counted on to deliver?
Reva: There's again the question of what is a state of civil military relations in Egypt currently. We know that the Muslim Brotherhood has risen to power. The military still remains very much involved and we're seeing that in the negotiation itself. But again there's the fact that remains that the rockets got into Gaza in the first place. And we know that the security situation in the Sinai has deteriorated very rapidly and significantly over the past year-and-a-half. We've seen and the presence of Salafist jihadists in Gaza increase, which calls into question the degree of Hamas' authority in the territory. So there are a lot of questions as to whether Israel can trust to the players in this negotiation and plus, it's not even just Hamas any more. There are very significant Palestinian factions like the Islamic Jihad, which has elevated its status in these negotiations. And Egypt has had to seek agreements from Palestinian Islamic Jihad just as much as it has had to from Hamas because both of these groups have been launching those long-range rocket attacks.
Colin: I'd just like to spool back to the rockets Hamas are using. This has been a huge factor. How did Hamas get hold of them?
Reva: The Fajr-5 rockets are Iranian made and they have made their way into Gaza from being smuggled in from mostly Sudan. And so we go back for example to Oct. 23, there was an airstrike presumably by Israel against a weapons facility in Khartoum. And that was presumably again against a supply of long-range rockets and other advanced weaponry that was intended for a Gaza. Now it's suspected that Iran was running that weapons facility, was assembling those weapons and also was training operatives from Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in how to assemble these weapons. Now, these are very large rockets and so you have to smuggle them in in parts. It's very difficult to maintain or conceal them once they're deployed so they're not very easy to maneuver overall. But they pose a very strategic threat. Remember in 2006, Hezbollah had rockets that could reach Haifa, a major population center in Israel. Now here we are in 2012 -- the end of 2012 -- and Hamas, a much smaller group, is able to reach the Israeli heartland, Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. That is critical. So basically Hamas is carrying the mantle from Hezbollah. And it is within reach of a very symbolic victory and the Fajr-5 rockets that Iran has provided have given them that.
Colin: And if there isn't a cease-fire, what are the consequences? Is an all-out war inevitable or could we just see more of the kinds of attacks by both sides of the last week or so?
Reva: Well I think that sustainability of the cease-fire is in question regardless. If Israel has any doubt that Hamas still actually has these rockets are has the capability to deploy them again or if future weapons transfers can make their way into Gaza, we cannot rule out a ground invasion at this point. It takes a lot for Israel to mobilize and it's not going to have that opportunity go to waste if it still faces a significant threat. So now we just have to see does Israel still see a ground invasion as necessary. Can it rely on the numbers that Egyptian intelligence is giving them on the number of rockets left and if it can't, is it going to have to go in anyway?
Colin: Now an an assortment of international players are actively seeking to resolve this impasse, including U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. What's your assessment as to how this will play out?
Reva: Well we've seen regional players like Turkey and Qatar trying to get involved but they don't really have a dog in this fight; they don't really have any real leverage to bring to bear. Egypt, like I said, is going to be a critical player in the negotiation. The United States is now becoming more actively involved and they could play a very critical role in the verification of the rocket supply and also to apply significant economic pressure on Egypt, which has been struggling immensely with its finances. And so we'll have to see how far the United States can go in playing a neutral third-party role in this conflict to make sure that Israel's concerns over the rockets are met. Now in addition to that, we have another dynamic here. The Israeli President Shimon Peres actually talked about this in an interview with CNN in which he identified Iran as the underlying factor to this entire conflict. And that's something Stratfor has been talking about for awhile … that remember these Iranian-made Fajr-5 rockets they were made in Iran, they were smuggled into Gaza with the help and Iran and so Iran has a lot of interest in seeing this conflict drag out. It's getting and major distraction from Syria and it's demonstrating its militant proxy prowess to the region and that's very powerful stuff. Now Israel is saying that Iran is a world problem -- in other words, it's telling the U.S., "this is your problem," that this is part of your burden. But there again we have some issues because Israel and the U.S. may be on the same page when it comes to containing Hamas, but not necessarily so when it comes to how to deal effectively with Iran. And we've seen that in a number of disagreements when it comes to the potential military strike, whether or not negotiate with Iran, the intensity of the sanctions and so on. So this is not an issue that's going to be resolved with a cease-fire to the current Gaza conflict.
Colin: I've been talking with Reva Bhalla, Stratfor's Vice President of Global Analysis. Reva's team will of course keep you up to date where things stands. And if you're in America, enjoy Thanksgiving. But wherever you are, thanks for spending time with Stratfor. Until the next time, goodbye.
