Ukraine's Foreign Policy Strategy (Dispatch)
Video Transcript:
Video Transcript
Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski visited Ukraine on Sept. 20, where he met with his Ukrainian counterpart, Viktor Yanukovich. On the same day, Ukraine announced that it will soon sign a $3 billion deal with China to acquire a credit line from Beijing in exchange for corn exports to the country. Ukraine's relationship with Poland and China will be important to watch as Kiev continues its pursuit of counterbalancing another powerful state with interests in the country -- Russia.
Ukraine has pursued a complex foreign policy under Yanukovich, who was billed by many as a loyal ally of Russia when he came into office in 2010. Yanukovich, who hails from the Russian-speaking Donbass region of eastern Ukraine, was the opponent in the pro-western Orange Revolution in 2005. And when Yanukovich defeated the Orangist candidates in 2010, he did initially show some Russian-leaning tendencies such as making NATO membership illegal and extending Russia's lease of its Black Sea Fleet by 25 years.
However, the beginning of Yanukovich's presidency eventually gave way to more tense relations with Russia, particularly over energy. Due to the linkage to the price of oil, prices for Russia's natural gas exports to Ukraine have risen substantially since the beginning of 2011. Yanukovich has attempted to get Russia to renegotiate the contract and lower prices, but Moscow has refused to do this unless Ukraine gives away strategic assets like its natural gas transit system or joins Russia's Customs Union.
Given that such moves would seriously undermine Ukraine's sovereignty, Yanukovich has been searching for other partners in order to gain leverage in negotiations with Russia. One of these countries is Poland, which has historical ties to the country and competes with Russian influence there. Bringing Ukraine closer to the West is one of Poland's top foreign policy priorities, and during his visit, Komorowski said that Ukraine must choose between the Customs Union or the European Union. However, Poland faces many obstacles in gaining serious clout in Ukraine, not least of which is the domestic political situation there. The imprisonment of opposition leader Yulia Timoshenko has served to stall Ukraine's integration efforts with the EU and has prevented Poland from making any serious progress in pulling Ukraine closer to the West.
One interesting country that has recently come into the mix is China. While China does not have the same strategic or political interests in Ukraine as Poland or Russia, it does see significant economic opportunities in the country. Ukraine is one of the world's largest grain producers and is also a major source of raw materials such as coal and industrial goods like steel and other metals. Given China's growing appetite for these goods, it has struck a number of economic deals with Ukraine, the latest of which is the $3 billion loan-for-corn deal. This has served Ukraine's interests well, as the financing from such deals prolongs Ukraine's ability to make its natural gas payments to Russia at a time when Western financing has been frozen for political reasons. China has also struck other deals with Ukraine to help construct coal gasification plants, which could potentially allow Ukraine to diversify from Russian energy using its own indigenous supplies.
Still, there are many obstacles to Ukraine fully diversifying away from Russia, energy or otherwise. Moscow retains a number of political, economic, and security levers in the country, and Kiev has lingering internal issues that could hamper further cooperation with the West and possibly China. But at the very least, such moves serve to extend Ukraine's ability to resist giving into Russian demands and give Kiev some breathing room, at least for now.
