Syrian Regime Losing Ground
Video Transcript:
Video Transcript:
An explosive device detonated inside a car in Homs Dec. 2, killing at least 15 people. This attack comes in the midst of a general escalation of fighting by both sides in the past three days, especially in Damascus. The regime's forces have responded with a number of search and destroy operations to push back rebel forces in the capital in the midst of a general degradation in the regime's ability to carry out large-scale offensives against the rebels across Syria. This erosion in offensive capability reflects an increasingly weakening al Assad regime and regime forces, especially as the rebels continue to make gains on the battlefield across Syria -- exhausting the regime's resources and calculating the right moment for an inevitable final strike on the capital.
An escalation of rebel attacks on and surrounding the Damascus airport Nov. 29 triggered another large crackdown by the regime on the rebels in the capital. This crackdown included the shutting down of the Damascus airport for three days and the cutting off of Internet throughout Syria for a 48-hour period. Although both the airport status and Internet appear to have been restored, their being cut off -- even temporarily -- represents an increasingly threatened al Assad regime.
While the regime has been focused on leading offensive campaigns in Damascus, large-scale offensives across Syria have slowed. For the bulk of the armed conflict in Syria, the regime's forces have been on the offensive, launching a variety of crackdowns on rebel-dominated areas across the country. However, until very recently, that strategy has shifted, and instead of launching sweeping offensives against rebel strongholds, the regime forces are using locally positioned government forces to engage the rebels with limited tactical support including fighter jets and attack helicopters.
The only place al Assad's forces appear to be capable of launching continued offensive operations against the rebels is in Damascus, reflecting reports that Syrian army troops across the country are suffering from military fatigue and indicating that the regime is of an increasingly weakening position. Even in Damascus, the strategy has devolved from holding and securing all of the capital to isolating the core of Damascus, while the suburbs continue to fall subject to rebel attacks.
As the regime continues to lose control of towns, roadways and airports to the rebels across greater Syria, al Assad's forces will not only focus on securing Damascus but also attempting to stave off foreign-backed supplies to the rebels by reminding the international community of the Syria's chemical weapons stockpiles. Such a reminder has recently been issued with the indications of the Syrian military's movement of chemical weapons that some say suggest a degree of potential chemical weapon preparation. Although the exact status of Syria's chemical weapons is unknown, this will continue to be one way the al Assad regime can attempt to deter foreign aid to the rebels.
Despite the regime's efforts, the recent rebel attacks on the capital indicates a continuation of a guerrilla-style offensive campaign that is being used until the rebel forces grow strong enough to more directly challenge the regime's hold on the capital. Although, such a large-scale offensive is inevitable in removing the al Assad regime, is not necessarily imminent, as the rebels will not launch such an operation until they are confident they can overwhelm the regime's forces in the capital.
In the meantime, the rebels will continue to strike at Syrian troops and infrastructure across the country, especially in their efforts to cut off transport routes between Damascus and the surrounding provinces. At the same time, rebels will attempt to neutralize the Syrian air force -- no easy task -- by over-running regime air bases and through the use of increasingly present surface-to-air missiles.
