Syrian Conflict Could Spread to Lebanon
Video Transcript:
Video Transcript:
The Alawite mufti in Lebanon warned March 21 that Alawites will defend themselves and retaliate if attacked. This statement comes in the midst of simmering clashes between pro-regime Alawite groups and anti-regime Sunnis in northern Lebanon. Despite the mufti's escalated rhetoric, on the whole Lebanese sects are waiting to see how the conflict will play out in Syria before taking a stand. The many ties between Syria and Lebanon will ensure both countries will continue to feel the effects of the civil war, but it will not be until the outcome of the Syrian battlefield is more decisive that a true breakdown among sects and their militias will ensue.
Since the onset of fighting inside Syria, there have been simmering tensions between pro-and anti-regime groups in Lebanon, specifically in the northern city of Tripoli. Three people were wounded March 20 in a shootout in a government hospital, purportedly between Lebanese Alawites and Sunnis. In addition to violent clashes, tensions between pro- and anti-Assad groups have manifested in tit for tat kidnappings, and efforts to close critical supply lines from Lebanon to the Syrian regime.
Although it is clear that some factions in Lebanon have already chosen sides, many of the sects have only shown rhetorical support in favor for or against the Syrian regime. Currently, it is unclear which faction or sect will be victorious in Syria, and it is even more unclear what a post-Assad scenario would look like considering all of the players involved. Because of this, sects inside Lebanon, and even some inside Syria, have chosen to adopt the "wait and see" tactic before committing to either side.
Syria does have some allies in Lebanon that they already know they can count on, one of the most prominent being Hezbollah. Hezbollah is currently focused on securing necessary supply lines from the northern Bekaa Valley through the Orontes River Valley to link up with the Alawite coast and is conserving its strength for an inevitable fight with its sectarian rivals.
The Syrian conflict has not yet fully engaged Lebanon, but history has shown that the Lebanese-Syrian border is artificial and will become increasingly irrelevant as the conflict intensifies. In fact, the spillover from Syria into Lebanon will only grow. As the battlefield successes and losses become more decisive, we can expect to see minority sects inside Lebanon and Syria begin to take a clearer stand with or against the regime.
It is likely that this stage will approach when the rebels build up the capability to seriously challenge loyalist forces in Homs on the approach to the capital. The city is critical due to its strategic location as one of the most important crossroads in terms of their lines of communications and supply from Damascus to the north, including the industrial hub of Aleppo, and toward the coast. The loss of Homs would create serious pressure on the regime's ability to unite Damascus and the north as well as its Alawite enclave, which would greatly threaten the regime's ability to secure Damascus. At this stage, the Alawites will become even more dependent on supply routes through Lebanon, and there will be an overwhelming strain on Alawite-dominated loyalist forces to hold together.
