Syria: Regime Forces Still Strong
Video Transcript:
Video Transcript:
A bomb exploded April 30 in central Damascus killing at least 13 and wounding 70 others. This attack comes one day after a car bomb assassination attempt on the Syrian prime minister in the capital. Although no group has claimed responsibility for the bombings, it bears the tradecraft of anti-regime fighters. The responsible rebels are likely attempting to demonstrate they still have the ability to stage effective hit and run attacks in the capital in the face of defeats being faced elsewhere throughout Syria. The loyalist force's recent battlefield gains reinforce the notion that despite rebel successes in the north, south, and east, rebels have not yet gained the battlefield advantage necessary to seize and control key crossroads and supply lines vital to the regime's survival.
Forces loyal to al Assad pushed through rebel lines and seized the town of Otaiba, east of Damascus April 24. This loss severed the rebels' supply lines into an area of Damascus known as Eastern Ghouta, from which the rebels have staged heavy attacks on the regime forces. This campaign was followed by a loyalist operation to rid Damascus' Jobar neighborhood of rebel forces April 26. The battle for Jobar and Otaiba is still under way, but if the loyalist forces succeed they will have nullified the rebel gains made around Damascus in the past few months.
The recent bombings in central Damascus do not indicate an advance in rebel capabilities, as similar and even larger attacks in the capital have been executed since early 2012. However, they are likely an attempt by anti-regime forces to demonstrate that despite some reversals of rebel gains, they still have the ability to strike at the heart of the loyalist controlled and heavily guarded capital city.
Although anti-regime fighters still have the ability to carry out large-scale bombings, and continue to control swaths of territory especially in the north and east, the recent rebel gain reversals indicate that al Assad's forces are still very much intact, powerful and effective. Loyalist forces are not only robust in and around Damascus but also near the Orontes River Valley.
Although rebels operate in many towns surrounding Homs and Al-Qusayr, loyalist forces with the help of Hezbollah have increased their tempo of operations in the area. This area located in the Orontes River Valley is one of the most important crossroads in the country. All of the major communication and supply lines running from Damascus northward, and from Damascus to the coast pass through Al-Qusayr and Homs. Because of this, the regime has placed a heavy emphasis during the course of the conflict to ensure the area is sufficiently armed and manned.
Though it is likely the rebels will continue to make gains in the north and east where loyalist supply lines are heavily threatened and many of its soldiers are isolated in remote areas, the real determining factor in the battle for Syria will be the rebels' ability to sever these supply lines. Doing so would isolate Damascus, the seat of loyalist power, which only then would give the rebels the tactical advantage necessary to make the fall of the regime imminent.
