Soft Target Attacks Increase in Iraq (Dispatch)
Video Transcript:
Video Transcript
Al Qaeda in Iraq claimed responsibility today for 43 attacks in the Sunni-dominated Anbar province this summer. Increased militant attacks began in early 2012 as a result of the withdrawal of coalition forces and spillover of Syrian sectarian tension. Unless militants begin to execute consistent large scale attacks in secure areas and against hardened security targets, these militant attacks will continue as a part of the new norm of instability.
In the months leading up to the withdrawal of coalition forces from Iraq in December 2011, the country's Shia Prime Minister Nouri Kamal al-Maliki began to consolidate power by ordering the arrest of hundreds of former Baath Party members. Al-Maliki's moves highlighted the level of distrust and sectarian tension still rife within Iraq. Soon after the coalition forces pulled out, there began a sharp increase in attacks by predominately Sunni, transnational and regional militants.
Attacks by these Sunni and transnational actors were also strengthened due to the ongoing Sunni insurgency in neighboring Syria. At the beginning of 2012, a resurgence of transnational jihadists flowed back into the region creating an opportunity for jihadist elements to take advantage of the sectarian spillover from Syria and sow regional chaos. While Sunni nationalist factions found an opportunity to revive their own efforts against the Shia-dominated Iraqi government.
The militant attacks that occurred during June and July do indicate a slight uptick in violence. However, the uptick can be explained in part by the general increased violence during summer months, in addition to the increased amount of holidays. In reality the death tolls reported since January 2012 have ranged between 200 to 400 each month, rendering the 325 reported deaths by militants in July average in comparison to the death tolls since the beginning of the year.
Daily militant attacks and high monthly death tolls have become the new reality and way of life in Iraq. These attacks most commonly consist of several small and usually unrelated attacks -- each individual attack resulting in relatively low death tolls. Such attacks most consistently take place along the fault lines of sectarian provinces and most commonly target softer civilian targets or security checkpoints. Roughly twice per month, however, there is a string of coordinated and operationally successful bombings against majority soft targets resulting in high death tolls, usually claimed by al Qaeda Iraq.
An example of such an operationally successful attack was the Aug. 16 bombings, which took place in 15 cities, killing 93 and wounding around 270. Though al Qaeda has not made an explicit claim, they bear a striking resemblance to the consistent coordinated attacks that they have claimed in the past.
In response to the new norm of daily militant attacks, the Iraqi security forces have proven relatively effective in disrupting some of the large-scale string of attacks, yet less effective against smaller isolated attacks, which are harder to prevent. The Iraqi security apparatus will continue to secure important oil infrastructure and attempt to thwart large-scale bombings by sending surges of troops to volatile areas, especially during holidays.
The militant attacks in Iraq have so far not reached a level comparable to the level of sectarian related death tolls experienced in Iraq during 2006 and 2007. The trend and reality of militant violence will continue, however will not prove destabilizing until the attacks can reach effectively and consistently in deep-seated provinces against much harder security targets.
