Shifting Foreign Policies in China and the U.S.
Video Transcript:
Video Transcript
China's Party Congress opens on Nov. 8, two days after Americans cast their presidential ballots. Both the Chinese and Americans are earnestly waiting to find out who will take the helm of their respective nations. However, a focus on personalities can be misleading in trying to assess how China and the United States conduct foreign relations.
The proclivities of personalities in the White House and the Politburo Standing Committee matter far less than the impersonal geopolitical constraints that drive foreign policy -- constraints that are similar despite the vast disparity in political structures. Significant shifts in both U.S. and China foreign policy are emerging and are underlined as both countries face critical political transitions in November. However, these are long-term geopolitical shifts that will outlast even the 10-year rein of China's new leadership.
The United States' foreign policy is shifting from one of aggressive diplomacy globally to a more selective engagement in global crises, relying more on regional allies than direct involvement. This is evident in many hotspots, including the South China and East China seas, where the U.S. has refrained from getting tied up in any military involvement.
In East Asia, this dynamic has actually been playing out for a while. The U.S. will encourage the military expansion of its allies but will no longer play a direct role in regional conflicts. Although the U.S. will remain engaged in the region, both economically and militarily, it will rely on its alliance structure to address any instability. And this is the crux of the U.S.' Asia "pivot."
The shift in China's foreign policy, on the other hand, is to become more engaged, especially in strategic economic decisions globally. The economic slowdown that has taken aim at China's export-dependent economy is pushing Chinese manufacturers overseas and increasing overseas competition with countries not only in Southeast Asia but also in places as far away as Mexico. Further, as China tries to maintain its growth, its energy and commodity supply chains remain critical and the government continues to support foreign direct investment initiatives overseas with a focus on energy and commodity related investments.
Prior to the economic slowdown, China's foreign policy was lacking and primarily inward looking, focusing namely on the sole intent of creating a stable external environment for its economic growth. With the global economy in flux, China can no longer rely on primitive foreign policy tools to develop its growing international interests. China needs a more sophisticated foreign policy in order to secure its economic and energy interests.
To facilitate this new posture, China will create a new institution under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs focused on strategic economic diplomacy. Further, there is talk that they will have a vice premier in charge of diplomatic affairs on the Politburo. The current foreign minister, Yang Jiechi, is not on the Politburo nor were many of his predecessors, so this emphasis on diplomacy in the top policy-making body is noteworthy.
These shifts in foreign policy, both in the U.S. and in China, will impact Sino-U.S. relations directly and for the long-term, regardless of November's outcomes. As the U.S. relies more on its allies in the region, China will move to play up the differences within the alliance structure, allowing China more room to exploit regional differences, and potentially giving further rise to pre-existing, long-standing territorial issues.
