Security Threats in Bahrain as F1 Race Approaches
Video Transcript:
Video Transcript:
Anti-government Shia opposition members constructed roadblocks and barricades made of burning tires in several villages in Bahrain on April 18. These tactics are regularly employed by rebels in the country, and this weekend's Formula One Grand prix event provides an international platform for the opposition to express their grievances and embarrass the government. Despite the intentions of the violent opposition elements, these threats will not likely affect the safety of the race or its participants due to an increased security presence, the coordination with Saudi Arabia, and the lack of demonstrated capability to carry out such attacks.
In early 2012, elements of the previously non-violent Shiite opposition in Bahrain began to adapt more radical and militant rhetoric and tactics, with the most prominent violent group being the Feb. 14 Movement. Since that time, the group has begun to employ the use of Molotov cocktails against security forces, lighting fires in the streets and even the deployment and detonation of crude improvised explosive devices.
Just as last year, the opposition group has called for a boycott of the Formula One race along with protests and violent attacks against security forces. In anticipation of this year's race, the February 14 Movement claimed responsibility for the detonation of one of four explosive-actuated incendiary devices on April 14. These devices, as well as those the group has detonated in the past, are very basic and simple to construct causing little to no surrounding damage. Additionally, these devices have only been deployed in predominately Shiite neighborhoods on the outskirts of the capital.
In addition to the group's lack of demonstrated capability, the Bahraini security forces have had ample time to prepare and put in place security measures ahead of the annual race. They have undergone specific training the event and likely have received pertinent intelligence and tips from Saudi Arabia -- which is also helping to secure the King Fahd Causeway connecting the two countries. Just as the rebels want use the international race as a platform to damage the Bahraini government's public image, the Saudi and Bahraini governments want to prove to the international community that Bahrain is a stable and legitimate democracy.
Although the February 14 Movement will not likely be able to affect the functioning or safety of the Formula One races, it is important to consider who or what is driving the opposition rebel elements. Since the adoption of violent tactics by the February 14th Movement, there has not yet been evidence that the group has developed significantly more sophisticated tactics. Rather the group has evolved its tactics very slowly without a significant jump in tactical complexity. Such a development would be one indicator that a foreign party could be involved.
Although Saudi Arabia and Bahrain are quick to attribute the presence of a radical opposition to the meddling of Iran, the rate of development of the groups' tactics suggest they have not received the resources or necessary training to become more than a low-level and persistent threat to the stability of the country. Therefore, the behavior of Bahrain's militant opposition will be important to observe both in the short term, when it threatens to affect the safety of the Formula One events, but more so in the long term, when it will help to identify whether a foreign benefactor such as Iran is indeed involved in escalating the unrest.
