A Scandal Weakens Spain's Prime Minister
Video Transcript:
In Spain, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is under growing pressure to resign following the latest revelations regarding controversial payments within his Popular Party. Even if Rajoy were to resign, his party would likely stay in power by avoiding early elections. The two largest Spanish parties -- the Popular Party and main opposition Socialist Party -- have little interest in triggering elections in light of weakening support. Similar to Italy and Greece, the distrust in the Spanish political elite is growing in light of political scandals and the continued economic downturn, strengthening the support for less established parties.
The Spanish press first reported the allegedly illicit payments within Rajoy's ruling party in January. If true, the scandal spans over two decades and involves a number of important figures in the Popular Party. For the past few months, Rajoy has managed to fend off the allegations. However, new information is adding pressure.
Over the weekend the Spanish newspaper El Mundo published text messages that Rajoy reportedly sent to Luis Barcenas, the former treasurer of the Popular Party who is accused of making illicit payments. During a court questioning yesterday, Barcenas reportedly revealed to have made payments to Rajoy before he became prime minister. Rajoy admits to the text messages but denies any crime. He refuses to step down as demanded by the Socialist Party.
Because the Popular Party has an absolute majority in the parliament, the Socialists can do little to force Rajoy to step down. A resignation would therefore more likely be the result of mounting pressure within the Popular Party. This pressure so far is limited and probably hinges on what further information is revealed.
The latest scandal fuels public distrust in Spain's political elite that is seen as ineffective in fighting unemployment amid the continued economic downturn.
In light of this growing distrust, the two largest parties in parliament, which have intermittently governed Spain for the past three decades, have little interest in new elections. Polls show that the Popular Party would still get most votes in new elections but likely suffer its worst result in over two decades. The Socialist Party hasn't been able to capitalize on the weak performance of the government and also has seen support drop. Voters don't believe the Socialists would change much since they were in power until 2011 and therefore are blamed for Spain's current troubles. Combined, the two largest parties would get around 50 percent of votes if elections were held now. During the last parliamentary elections in November 2011, they got 70 percent.
Two smaller leftist parties are challenging the duopoly. The United Left Party and Union, Progress and Democracy Party would jointly get around 26 percent if elections were held now compared to 11 percent in the last elections.
This shows that the situation in Spain is similar to Greece and Italy. The main parties in both countries were rocked by political scandals and economic contraction over the past years and have seen their support drop amid the rise of anti-establishment parties. Nonetheless they have managed to hold on to power.
Despite growing public discontent, the two largest parties in Spain will likely manage to do the same for some time. The challenge from fringe parties is still weaker than compared to Italy or Greece and by avoiding early elections the rise of smaller parties will be delayed though by no means avoided completely.
