Russian Security Concerns After U.S. Leaves Afghanistan
Video Transcript:
Russia held a summit this week with some of its Central Asian neighbors to discuss the security situation in Afghanistan in the context of the upcoming withdrawal of U.S. forces and the International Security Assistance Force in 2014. The next phase in Afghanistan will pose a significant security challenge for both Russia and Central Asia, with a number or preparations being made by these countries in anticipation of the U.S. withdrawal. The withdrawal may not lead to an immediate explosion of violence and militancy across borders like many expect. However, Afghanistan will be a persistent security concern facing Russia and Central Asian states in the coming years.
There are two main concerns of spillover related to Afghanistan -- militancy and drugs. A number of militants based in Central Asian countries like Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan fled to the Afghanistan/Pakistan theater at the beginning of the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. Militants from groups like the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan have continued to wage attacks in Afghanistan, and there is concern some of these militants will return to Central Asia once the withdrawal occurs.
An increase in the flow of narcotics is also a worry, with Central Asia serving as a major transit point for the production of opium, marijuana and other drugs in Afghanistan to their biggest markets in Russia and Europe. Any efforts by U.S. forces to eliminate narcotics production will be significantly curtailed and the production and flows of drugs is likely to increase after 2014.
An important topic that was discussed at the summit was the reinforcement of Tajikistan's long and porous border with Afghanistan. The Collective Security Treaty Organization leaders discussed strengthening security measures at the border and modernizing the group's rapid reaction forces. This comes just weeks after Russia's envoy to Afghanistan said that Russia should return to deploying its own guards to the border, though this is something that Tajikistan has so far not agreed to.
While the narcotics issue is a serious one, the threat of an immediate spread of militancy, though real, may be overblown. The United States will leave a residual force and could keep as many as nine military bases in Afghanistan beyond 2014, preventing the creation of a complete security vacuum. There will also likely be an intensified power struggle between the Taliban and opposing forces once the withdrawal occurs, which will concentrate activity towards Taliban strongholds in the south of the country and the Afghanistan/Pakistan border area more so than the northern border with Central Asia.
Still, this does not mean all is in the clear for Central Asia and Russia. Indeed, the discussions on taking extra precautions on the Tajik border with Afghanistan shows there are serious worries about that front. But there are also a number of other issues within Central Asia that will test the stability of the region in coming months. This includes ethnic tensions along the borders of the three Fergana Valley countries of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, as well as internal instability in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan over domestic political and security issues.
In the meantime, Russia will have to face the issue of providing Central Asian countries with security and financial assistance to meet their pressing needs, as well as tackling its own problem of militancy. In recent weeks, several militants that were allegedly trained in Afghanistan and Pakistan have been arrested in Russia for planning to carry out terrorist attacks, showing that militancy will still stream northward, even if not in a massive wave of violence. Therefore, the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan will serve as an additional source of pressure to an already challenging security climate for Russia and Central Asia.
