Ruling Party Dominance in Angola Elections (Dispatch)
Video Transcript:
Video Transcript
Angola is gearing up for national elections that are set for Aug. 31. Elections in Angola are a rare event and until now have largely been contentious and limited affairs, being either a trigger for a civil war or a boycott. These elections are opportunity for the government to show democracy is entrenched in Angola, however, the political space of Angola is so thoroughly dominated by the MPLA that the results won't be a surprise.
The Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola, or MPLA, has ruled Angola since independence from Portugal in 1975. President Jose Eduardo dos Santos has in turned ruled over the MPLA since 1979. There is one opposition party of note in Angola, the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola, or UNITA, the Cold War nemesis of the MPLA.
The MPLA has thoroughly dominated the Angolan political space, to the extent that UNITA is no longer any effective opponent to it. There is no real threat at the upcoming elections against the MPLA winning a vast majority of the votes. UNITA has held occasional protests because of the poor elections logistics and intimidation of the Angolan electoral commission. But with two weeks until the election, there is an effective silence from the opposition, against the political, economic and security hegemony of the MPLA.
President dos Santos, as leader of the MPLA, is effectively guaranteed re-election, based on the party's likely victory. Dos Santos will use the elections to demonstrate that democracy is now becoming institutionalized in Angola and that the era of civil war resolving internal grievances is a thing of the past.
Moving forward after the election, attention will be put toward the possible successor to dos Santos. The incumbent has governed over the country uninterrupted since 1979. At 70 years of age, dos Santos is reaching a point that retirement is now a luxury he could afford. The Minister of State for Economic Coordination [Manuel Vicente] stands in the second position on the MPLA membership hierarchy, making him the designated successor at this point in time. It is not for sure that Vicente will remain in that position forever, as there have been other designated successors to dos Santos in the past. But should dos Santos decide at some point to step down from active governance, focus will be assigned to Vicente. The former Sonangol chief would likely safeguard his focus on extracting economic advantages for Angola and MPLA elite.
Vicente's current ministerial portfolio masks his broader role in the Angolan government and MPLA hierarchy. Vicente previously served as chief executive officer of the state-owned oil company Sonangol, a position that made him Angola's point person on managing at home and in global fora the country's singularly significant economic sector, that being oil and gas. Sonangol is the hub for managing Angola's wealth, and from it stretch the tentacles of patronage that ensure not only the loyalty of party members but at the same time reinforces the bleak prospects supporters of UNITA face. To be sure, oil and gas wealth managed via Sonangol is a pillar of power in Angola, alongside an extensive and ruthless internal security apparatus developed during the Cold War.
There is no strict timetable to the next chapter in Angola's political advancement. There is no strict pressure on dos Santos to retire, nor is the Angolan leader in some state of ill health compelling him to reduce his responsibilities. It is because of a sense of political, economic and security strength unrivaled by a domestic challenger that Angola and the MPLA can in confidence proceed with elections and even talk of a successor.
