The Risks of Egypt's Outreach to Iran
Video Transcript:
Video Transcript:
Egypt's Islamist president, Mohammed Morsi, gave a red carpet welcome to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Wednesday, marking the first visit by an Iranian president to Egypt since the Iranian revolution in 1979. Last summer, shortly after taking office, Morsi also made a high-level visit to Tehran.
Morsi has been very straightforward about his intent to reestablish ties with the Islamic Republic. Though there are common foreign policy interests drawing these two regional heavyweights together, this is still a risky move for the Egyptian president to be taking in the current political environment.
Morsi is trying to reclaim Egypt's position as the pivot of the Arab world. After successfully leading an uprising, the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood wants to create a model for Islamist rule in Arab countries and have that ideological platform act as a catapult for Egyptian influence in a fast-changing region, where moderate Islamists are battling for power against Salafists and secularists.
Morsi's agenda does not sit well with the Gulf Arab countries. With the exception of Qatar, the Gulf Arabs led by Saudi Arabia view the Muslim Brotherhood's regional agenda as a direct threat to their monarchial foundation. So while cash-strapped Egypt is trying to secure loans from its neighbors to avoid state collapse, the Saudis have been careful to limit their financial assistance and at the same time provide support to more radical Salafist groups to keep the Muslim Brotherhood in check and the Islamist landscape divided overall.
Unable to trust his Arab neighbors, Morsi is looking to boost his leverage through more controversial relations. In the same way that Syria derived influence in the region by distancing itself from the Arab consensus and aligning with Iran, Egypt under the Muslim Brotherhood is attempting a similar iconoclastic foreign policy. We would expect this policy to be most visible in a conflict zone like Syria, where a fractured Sunni rebel movement is rising in power but also will have to contend with a still-powerful Alawite faction backed by Iran. Egypt, in trying to mold the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood into a cohesive political entity and in developing a working relationship with Iran, hopes to be a player in this regional battleground.
Iran is more than happy to facilitate Egypt's strategy. Iran is already on the regional defensive in Syria and is now trying to hold its position in Iraq. Developing a relationship with Egypt would provide Iran with a foothold, albeit a tenuous one, in the Arab world.
Egypt's Islamist government may have big regional ambitions, but it is still heavily constrained within its borders. The state is skirting economic collapse and will remain dependent on external lending for some time to come. Iran has offered what it called a big credit line to Egypt, but Iran also doesn't have much spare cash to throw around the region when it has bigger priorities at home, in Iraq and in Syria. By cozying up to Iran, Morsi may hope to encourage a Saudi-Iranian bidding war, but he could end up alienating his government even more.
Within Egypt's already fragile political environment, Morsi is also taking a substantial political risk in getting close to Iran. This was seen in the rather cold reception given to Ahmadinejad by the Grand Imam of Al-Azhar University, the most respected religious authority in Sunni Islam. The Grand Imam ended up admonishing the Iranian president for meddling in Bahrain and for pushing an agenda to spread Shiism in Sunni lands. After their meeting, Egypt's Salafist groups publicly praised the Grand Imam for his treatment of the Iranian president.
Egypt's military and security apparatus is also likely wary of Morsi's outreach to Iran. As the conflict in Gaza late last year illustrated, Iran played a central role in providing Hamas with the long-range rockets that provoked an Israeli response. The Egyptian military has also long been wary of Iranian militant links in Gaza and the potential blowback into Egypt. Morsi may argue that a closer relationship with Iran will mitigate this threat, but there is likely to be deep skepticism among the military ranks toward this strategy.
