Rising Sunni Resistance to Hezbollah
Video Transcript:
Video Transcript:
Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah delivered a televised address Feb. 27 to refute rumors that he had been rushed to an Iranian hospital for cancer treatment. The rumors over Nasrallah's health are the latest example of a Sunni-led campaign to try and undermine Hezbollah's authority in Lebanon.
A day earlier, rumors swirled in Lebanon over Nasrallah, some claiming he was critically ill and others claiming that he and his deputy Naim Qassim had been injured in an attack on their convoy by Free Syrian Army rebels on the Syrian-Lebanese border. The rumors appear to be part of a psychological warfare campaign by Syrian and Lebanese Sunnis to spread the perception that Hezbollah is weakening as a result of the Syrian rebellion.
Over the past couple weeks, this Sunni campaign against Hezbollah has visibly escalated, not just in rhetoric, but also in action. On Feb. 25, the municipal chief in Tyre, Hasan Awada, who is a Hezbollah ally, was wounded from a small bomb placed in his car. Salafists in Lebanon's southern Sidon are threatening to storm Hezbollah's safe-houses in the area. Meanwhile, there have been FSA [Free Syrian Army] attacks on Hezbollah positions on the Syria-Lebanon border as well as in the Qusayr region south of Homs in Syria.
The activity in and around Qusayr is especially notable. Stratfor highlighted months ago how Hezbollah was taking control over several villages in this area around the Orontes River Valley basin to maintain the Syrian loyalists' vital supply line between Damascus and Homs and also to link Hezbollah's positions in the Bekaa with an Alawite stronghold on the coast. Hezbollah's reinforcement for the loyalist troops in Qusayr is vital to the Alawites' ability to hold Damascus. Since this has been a major impediment to the Syrian rebels, they are now drawing attention to Hezbollah's shelling of villages around Qusayr and are using that to drum up support against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Hezbollah is not looking for a premature conflict with its sectarian adversaries in Lebanon. This fight may be inevitable and Hezbollah is legitimately threatened by Sunni gains in Syria, but the group remains the largest, most well-trained and the most well-equipped militia in the region. Hezbollah is hoping this reputation will mitigate some of the Sunni resistance it now sees building in Lebanon, but it also appears to be taking steps toward trying to divide the Sunni camp by arming a Sunni militia in Beirut that is at odds with the mainstream Lebanese Sunnis and Salafists.
While trying to keep its Sunni rivals at bay, Hezbollah is also in a tricky position with Israel to the south. The more threatened loyalist forces are in Syria, the more they may try to move sensitive weaponry through Lebanon and the more likely those weapons could end up in Hezbollah's possession. This has Israel on high alert, as illustrated by the suspected Israeli airstrike Jan. 30 against a Hezbollah weapons convoy suspected of carrying SA-8 surface-to-air missile systems.
Israel is signaling it will take action if it sees any sensitive weaponry fall into Hezbollah's hands, but Hezbollah is also trying to signal back that Israel's actions will not go unanswered. On Feb. 24, a suspected anti-aircraft missile was seen fired in the air in Lebanon the same day that Israel flew an unmanned aerial vehicle over Lebanon, drawing suspicion that at least some anti-aircraft systems had in fact made their way into Hezbollah's hands.
Hezbollah is not trying to provoke a conflict with either its Sunni adversaries nor with Israel while trying to prepare for a deeper fragmentation in Syria, but the regional circumstances are nonetheless pushing the group into a position where it also cannot afford not to respond to provocations from the other side.
