Poland's Strategic Outlook (Agenda)
Video Transcript:
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Video Transcript:
Colin Chapman: No European country is more anxious about the future of the European Union than Poland, a country highly exposed on the Great European Plain between two big countries seared in its history, Germany and Russia. On a visit to Poland, I found government officials, defense specialists and think tanks all in the state of angst about the country's long-term future. Poland has done well in recent years, but its sense of history still makes it feel insecure.
Welcome to Agenda, and to discuss this I'm joined by Stratfor's Eurasia analyst Eguene Chausovsky. Eugene, I found Poles fearful of their future. They still seem upset by the cancelation by President Barack Obama of the Bush-era anti-ballistic missile system and appear very anxious about the promised NATO replacement and some doubts about NATO itself. A new Defense White Paper is set to come out before the end of the year. What's Stratfor's assessment?
Eugene Chausovsky: Well to understand Poland's apprehension about the BMD system, one really needs to understand Poland's broader security dilemma. And to do that, you just need to look at a map. Poland is in a tenuous situation -- geographically sandwiched between Germany on one side and Russia on the other -- and this constantly throughout Polish history has been a security challenge to say the least for the Poles. Now as far as the BMD situation is concerned, it's less a matter of the technical aspects, whether it's the U.S. system or in NATO-wide system, than it is about the symbolic commitment of BMD to Poland. And in this situation, it's really important for the Poles to have the American security guarantee behind it, meaning the commitment of Americans, of troops on the ground, if need be. So basically, Poland needs a security guarantor to protect its interests, but Poland also needs to build up its own homegrown defense sector as well. And there's actually been recent talks between, for example, Poland and the Israelis in order to help them do this. At the bottom line is that its own indigenous security has always been an issue for Poland, given that it is outweighed economically and militarily by larger powers.
Colin: The Poles take the lead in an EU group seeking to build better relations with the lands to the east -- Ukraine, Belarus, some other countries -- seeking free trade and a visa-free zone. But I detect in Belarus. One diplomat, whose job it is to deal with Minsk, said flatly that she didn't like going there and indeed hadn't been there for two years.
Eugene: Poland has long had an interest in Belarus, and this has served as an area of competition between Poland and Russia, which has actually gone back hundreds of years. However, in the current context, there's been a number of internal political developments in Belarus, which has served to isolate the country from the West and from Poland. This is mainly due to the controversial presidential elections that happened at the end of 2010 and the ensuing security crackdown on opposition forces, which has had the result of isolating Belarus from the West, from the EU and from the United States. As a result, it's pushed it closer to Russia. So in this competition over Belarus, currently Russia is in a much stronger position than Poland. Ukraine's position is slightly different than that of Belarus in that Ukraine has not completely isolated itself from the Europeans. So Ukraine is not completely lost but it will present an increasingly difficult situation for Poland to bring it closer to the West and to the Europeans.
Colin: Another big issue for Poland is the development of their deposits of shale gas. They believe they're being held to ransom by the Russians and are delighted that the EU is investigating the overcharging by Gazprom. They also feel that there may be other forces holding up developments.
Eugene: Shale gas is really the big issue in Poland right now and that's not only for economic reasons but also for strategic reasons. Poland has long sought to diversify its energy away from Russia, and shale gas presented one major opportunity for Poland in order to do that. However, it's been a long-term outlook for Poland in terms of shale gas in that the drilling and the testing is still going on and it's unclear exactly what the effects of that will be. It seems that there will be some production out of it, but how much and when it will come online is still relatively unclear. That being said, Poland is pursuing some other diversification projects as well; it's building an LNG import terminal, which is scheduled to come online in 2014. And it's teaming up with some other Central European countries to form natural gas interconnectors. And energy will really be the major issue that drives relations between Poland and Russia in the coming years.
Colin: The Poles are pushing hard for a common energy market in the EU.
Eugene: Right. There's a number of different maneuvers that Poland has been taking in addition to the shale gas and the nuclear project as you mentioned. They have really been advocating for the Europe-wide energy pacts and energy solutions, if you will, to Russia's hold onto the European Continent. And one of those has been the Third Energy Package. Poland has also have been involved in negotiations to lower gas prices that Russia charges it. So it's getting a lot of other countries on board, particularly the Baltics and the Central Europeans.
Colin: I've just read a long report from the Environmental DG at the European Commission in Brussels and it looks as if all kinds of forces are at work, particularly in France and Germany, to question the wisdom of fracking shale. But the Poles seemed determined to go ahead, come what may.
Eugene: Well of course the shale issue has become one that has been very politicized, with certain countries being in favor of it and other countries being opposed whether for economic or safety reasons. But clearly for Poland, it is really the main driver of this given all that's at stake and given the different dynamics in play between Russia and Central and Eastern Europe on the energy front. Poland has really been trying to take the lead in being the one that breaks the monopoly or the major influence that Russia has on these countries' energy markets. So of course, Russia would like to stop this and Poland will be the one to really vouch for it in the end.
Colin: Finally Warsaw's hosting a meeting this weekend to hear the results of an EU study into changes in the Constitution, including a big reduction in the number of commissioners and having an elected president. Do you think there will be any traction in this while the future of the whole eurozone remains unclear?
Eugene: Well the future of the eurozone is certainly the most important issue to Poland right now, even more so than Russia and more than shale as well. That's because it's…the eurozone is in an unclear situation right now with its financial difficulties. It's slowly been moving through the crisis, but it's unclear right now exactly where that's heading. So beyond the specifics of commissioners or other details of the eurozone it's really the nature of the bloc that's in question for Poland, and it's Poland's position that's really uncertain in the scenario.
Colin: Eugene, thanks very much. That's Agenda for this week; thanks for being with at Stratfor. Bye for now.
