Opposition Uses Creative Tactics in Belarus (Dispatch)
Video Transcript:
Video Transcript
Belarus continues to see tensions grow with the European Union over a month after a Swedish public relations firm sponsored a flight of a small plane into Belarusian airspace to perform a now-infamous teddy bear drop near Minsk. This drop, which contained anti-government and pro-democracy messages attached to the teddy bears, has caused ripples within the Belarusian government and security forces. And while it is unlikely to lead to any significant opening by Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko, it may be only the beginning of more creative tactics by those in opposition to Lukashenko.
The July teddy bear drop occurred at a time when relations between Belarus and the European Union were already quite weak. The European Union adopted sanctions against Lukashenko and several members of his regime following a disputed presidential election and ensuing security crackdown on protests at the end of 2010. In the meantime, European countries with strategic interests in Belarus, like Poland and Lithuania, have tried to increase their support of opposition movements against Lukashenko.
However, this strategy has largely proven unsuccessful, as Lukashenko's crackdown on opposition groups has only increased and no formidable leader has emerged from the opposition. Most notable figures have either been arrested or have fled across the border to Lithuania or Poland. As a consequence, Belarus has only further isolated itself from the Europeans, and this has forced the country to grow closer to Russia over the past year and a half.
These developments have caused several European countries to reconsider their strategy, and Lithuania explicitly admitted as much in May when the Lithuanian foreign minister said the strategy of supporting opposition groups was not working, and that instead an alternative power center should be created in Belarus. Poland, which unsuccessfully tried to use its EU presidency in the second half of 2011 to build closer ties to Belarus and other former Soviet states via its Eastern Partnership program, also has shared Lithuania's frustration over the lack of movement on the opposition front.
Sweden, another country with interests in Belarus and the co-initiator of the Eastern Partnership along with Poland, seems to have adopted a new tactic of taking the fight against Lukashenko directly to the streets. The teddy drop, which was performed by a private Swedish public relations firm but defended by the Swedish government, has increased public attention on the political situation in Belarus. It has also shown the extensive measures the government is willing to take in reaction to such a stunt. While such a publicity stunt would have been little more than a slight embarrassment in most other European countries, Belarus dismissed the Swedish ambassador over the event. Lukashenko also fired both the air force chief and the head of border control of the country, blaming them for allowing a breach of national security. Such a reaction was likely just the kind of asymmetrical response the Swedes and other opposition supporters were hoping to illicit from the stunt.
Still, moves like the teddy bear drop are unlikely to lead to the overthrow of Lukashenko or the ushering in of democracy to Belarus anytime soon. But it could serve as inspiration for other human rights groups using non-violent tactics to increase their activity in Belarus and expand their tactics beyond the traditional mechanism of supporting formal opposition groups, which has had little impact on the country overall. At the very least, this could breathe new life into the anti-Lukashenko movement and create a new dynamic to the social and political situation in Belarus that the country has yet to have witnessed.
