Obama's Visit and the U.S.-Israeli Relationship
Video Transcript:
Video Transcript:
Barack Obama is making his first visit to Israel as president of the United States. There will be many public displays meant to affirm the strong relationship between the U.S. and Israel. But the underlying reality is that there is little either side can do to combat instability in the region. Obama and Netanyahu will no doubt discuss the issue of Iran at length -- Obama will ask for patience and time, and Netanyahu will continue to ask for a clear American red line. Obama's next stops in the West Bank and Jordan may indicate where the two partners share mutual interest. Ultimately though, the pragmatic foundation of the relationship between the U.S. and Israel has weakened.
The Middle East has changed markedly since Obama's last visit in 2008 as a Democratic presidential candidate. Israel has less ability to shape forces around it than it has had in recent history. And the U.S. is attempting to shift the focus of its foreign policy and to raise the bar for military intervention.
Besides its strategic partnership with the U.S., Israel's most important relationship is with Egypt. Mubarak's fall from power has not caused the abrogation of the peace treaty, and Egypt's weak government has reason to maintain that peace. But neither the U.S. nor Israel can be completely certain. Neither has much influence in Egypt's unstable domestic political situation, as the Egyptian military and the Muslim Brotherhood struggle to cooperate to combat increasing lawlessness and economic issues.
The situation on its northern border with Syria has also changed. Where once the al Assad regime was a predictable force, an amorphous group of Syrian opposition groups and Islamists are fighting for power. It's unclear what outcome the Israelis would prefer in the Syrian conflict, much less what Israel could do to further U.S. interests. In the interim, indications of American weapon shipments and training of Syrian rebels demonstrate the more hands off strategy the U.S. is employing in its foreign policy.
Ultimately, the most important issue for Israel and specifically for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is the potential of a nuclear-armed Iran. Approximately five hours are allotted for talks just between Netanyahu and Obama, and much of that conversation will likely consist of Obama insisting on patience and trust that the U.S. will act to prevent a nuclear Iran if all other options have been exhausted. Netanyahu has little he can do besides expressing Israeli concerns and hoping that the U.S. will keep its word.
Obama will travel to the West Bank and to Jordan after Israel. There are mixed reports as to whether Obama will try to revitalize the peace process, something both the Palestinians and Jordanians have pushed for. But in a region that is increasingly unstable, it is telling that Obama will visit two political entities with issues of their own but that have thus far withstood varying levels of unrest. In particular, both the U.S. and Israel have an interest in making sure King Abdullah's regime in Jordan remains stable. Jordan's smaller size relative to Egypt makes it easier to support.
It is amidst this regional uncertainty that Obama makes his first presidential visit to Israel. In public, both sides will emphasize the shared history and values between the two. But at the end of the day, the overall message will be one of patience, not action. There is little either side can do for the other right now, and increasingly both sides will pursue their domestic and strategic interests in their own ways.
