Mexican Cartel Bombmaking: Intent vs. Capability (Tearline)
Video Transcript:
Video Transcript
Inside U.S. intelligence and security services, there is renewed discussion about whether or not vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices, better known as VBIEDs, are being used by criminal organizations in Mexico. Stratfor Vice President of Analysis Scott Stewart and I have examined this topic extensively, so we thought it would be a good time to weigh in on the discussion and add a little clarity to the situation on the ground.
The use of improvised explosive devices in Mexico is nothing new. Explosives are plentiful in Mexico due to their widespread use in the country's mining and petroleum sectors. In fact, Mexican officials frequently encounter explosives, including small amounts of military-grade explosives and larger quantities of commercial explosives in arms caches that belong to Mexican cartels.
These explosives have played a minor role in the escalation of cartel violence in Mexico beginning in 2008. In February 2008, an IED was prematurely detonated in Mexico City. Investigators believe it was part of a failed assassination attempt against a high-ranking police official. Then, in July 2010, the cartels began to use IEDs more frequently. Stratfor’s law enforcement contacts now say that the cartels are creating more sophisticated and functional devices. This isn’t surprising due to the volume of devices that have been used in recent years, since bombmakers typically get better with practice.
The IEDs that have been detonated by the Mexican cartels share a very common damage profile. The frames of the vehicles remained largely intact after detonation. There has also been only minor damage to surrounding vehicles and structures after detonations, indicating that the devices were small in size. A large-scale IED or VBIED would cause a large blast seat in the pavement -- commonly referred to as a crater -- significant damage to surrounding structures, blown-out windows, frag effect or building collapse. These haven't been seen in Mexico to date.
The devices we’ve seen in Mexico have been what we consider "bombs in cars" rather than "car bombs." The difference is one of scale. As the name implies, "vehicle-borne" suggests that the device is too large to be carried by other means and requires a vehicle to convey it to the target. In most cases, a true VBIED is also constructed to be part of the vehicle.
When assessing any threat, two main factors must be considered: intent and capability. So far, the Mexican cartels have demonstrated that they have the capability to create large-scale VBIEDs, but not the intent. The cartels are also very pragmatic actors and understand that deploying a large IED may be counterproductive. IEDs deployed in Mexico to date have accomplished the cartels' goals -- essentially sending messages to the targets. Large-scale IEDs or VBIEDs would require more resources and would likely cause substantial collateral damage, leading to a public backlash that would ultimately harm the organizations.
What's the Above the Tearline aspect of this video? There is no doubt the Mexican cartels have the capability to construct large-scale and functional VBIEDs, but, so far, they have not shown the intent to do so. We are consistently monitoring explosions in Mexico for a change in tactics and trends. However, so far, we have not seen a shift to more violent destructive devices.
