Japan's New Regional Diplomacy (Agenda)
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Colin Chapman: Within days of being elected, Japan has embarked on a diplomatic offensive in the Asia-Pacific region, embracing South Korea, Southeast Asia, Myanmar, Russia and Australia. In the Philippines, new Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida and his Manila counterpart agreed to cooperate on maritime security, a move described by The New York Times as a telling sign of how China's rise has turned former foes into allies. Almost on a daily basis now, Japan is scrambling at 15 fighters when China's military aircraft skirt close to its airspace near disputed islands in the East China Sea. But so far, the Abe government seems to be seeking a diplomatic solution by finding friends.
Welcome to Agenda. I'm Colin Chapman, and with me is senior East Asia analyst Rodger Baker. Rodger, what is Japan trying to achieve with this diplomacy in the context of the election rhetoric and economic priorities?
Rodger Baker: Well I think we have to look at this new government as it comes into play. One, they have another election still coming up later in this year that they're going to have to win. Number two, their main focus will be economic; they have to reinvigorate the economy and they have to do things at least to appear that they're stimulating the economy before this next round of elections. And for that when they deal with their neighbors, the reality is that even though they have certain territorial disputes or certain political disputes with their neighbors, in the end they have very strong economic connections with them and the perception of their own ability to strengthen their economy requires them to have a somewhat stable set of relations around the region.
Colin: Japan's foreign minister's first overseas trip has been to the Philippines, other parts of Southeast Asia and this weekend Australia. In each case, only very short visits. What's the purpose of that?
Rodger: One of the things we see this government doing is it's focusing most of its early visits on Southeast Asia. And this is in part because this is one of those dynamic areas in the world economically, politically. The Japanese are getting a feel for just how much the Southeast Asian nations are really wanting Japan to take a stronger role in the region. Japan is being encouraged by the United States to do that. They are looking at these places as potential areas where they can accelerate their own economic activity as well. And it doesn't necessarily take a very long meeting; I think that what these are is sort of a re-centering, re-get to know you, the LDP has been out of power for three years; they're back in power. They want to re-establish and re-touch base around Southeast Asia.
Colin: Many will welcome that but will say they don't want Japan to get into a serious conflict with China. Does it seem possible?
Rodger: Well I think nobody right now is wanting to see a major conflict break out in Asia. There is a sense though that the Japanese economic malaise and then the Chinese economic rise and the change in strategic balance in the region has been pretty strong. Even with this concept of U.S. pivot back to Asia, it doesn't look like the United States is going to be significantly increasing its presence in the region and therefore I think what countries are looking for is for Japan to play a bit of a balancing role with the Chinese. Not to overwhelm the Chinese, not to go to war with the Chinese, but to help to balance that out and give these Southeast Asian countries some options that they can be able to play back and forth between these larger economic and political powers.
Colin: Isn't there a bit of a problem here? Public opinion plays a big part in China's Japan policy but can Abe afford to let that happen in his China policy?
Rodger: Well I think that public opinion from the Japanese side toward the Chinese plays a bit of a role. I don't think that the nationalist rhetoric is nearly as strong, and in China I think the Chinese have the ability to control that type of nationalist rhetoric as well. The Chinese are using the public opinion, but I don't think that that's what's driving the Chinese policy. The Chinese instead are trying to reshape expectations for the region, reshape the way in which people view Chinese activity in the region and make it so that it's the norm that China is much more physically active in the East China Sea, in the South China Sea, in the Indian Ocean and in the West Pacific. And those stem from strategic interest in China. In Japan, there has to be a response to what the Chinese are doing but it doesn't necessarily always have to be a very assertive response. The Japanese want to balance that economic interest with the political security interest. And I think that in some sense Abe is banking on the idea that despite the Chinese appearance of power that in reality the Chinese know that they're actually in a bit of a weaker position
Colin: And of course Japan is also increasing its defense budget. Is that in response to China's assertiveness or something broader?
Rodger: The increase in Japanese defense budget reflects a few things. One is the reality that what China is now doing and what China is able to do is far different than it was five years ago, 10 years ago, 20 years ago. And so Japan is looking at the region and saying these things need to be done, these things need to be adjusted. Part of it is that the Japanese are in the process of transitioning away from their post-Cold War role for their security apparatus and changing to something that is going to be more active regionally, that is going to be better integrated in their foreign policy and that's going to require an increase in funding and an increase in budget. Some of it, I think, is because the Japanese are looking at the military also as reinforcing their political and economic opportunities in the region. Not in that they're going to use the military to force other countries to give them these opportunities but instead that it shows that they are an all-around potential partner and that countries like the Philippines, countries like Indonesia, Myanmar, can feel a little more confident about their increased economic interaction with Japan. It's not completely at the expense of China, but it allows those countries actually to exploit the rivalry. And by increasing their defense role, that shows that Japan is more committed and it's not going to simply going to back down immediately if the Chinese try to become more assertive in some of these southeast Asian countries.
Colin: Now let's look briefly relations with Korea. One of Abe's first actions was to send an emissary to Seoul. Did that achieve the outcome he had hoped for?
Rodger: It's not entirely clear what it's achieved. The South Korean government hasn't had its transition yet. I think what he was trying to do was to reassure the incoming South Korean government that the nationalist rhetoric in the sense of a more aggressive or more assertive Japan is not really what he's going to be doing, that he's going to be a little bit more pragmatic and that was a lot of electioneering. We have a more conservative government coming in in South Korea as well. There's going to be some discussions going on about, well, do we really reinvigorate this concept of Northeast Asian free trade. Do we revisit some of the quiet defense cooperation, intelligence sharing cooperation deals that were tried in the past but got overthrown by political opposition in South Korea?
Colin: Rodger, you said at the start of our talk that the economy is Abe's prime focus. But we live rather more in hope than in confidence that he'll succeed here.
Rodger: Well Japan has sat in sort of a the stagnant economic position for more than two decades. There's been a lot of attempts and a lot of talks about changing that economy, about strengthening the economy, about bringing new growth and accelerated activity into Japan and I think people are very cautious about that. It hasn't happened in the past; it's going to require some shakeup of the way in which these companies interact with the government. It may require some shake up of the social contract that the government has with the companies and with the population. And so Abe can say these are the things that he wants to do and then he can influence things like some changes in the valuation of the currency, some changes perhaps in the acceptable levels of inflation and maybe get a little bit of additional activity going. But there's certainly no guarantee that he's going to be able to significantly alter the economic patterns of Japan. This is also I think why they're looking at Southeast Asia because again Southeast Asia is one of the few dynamic economic regions in the world. And it's got a lot of opportunity for Japanese companies to go abroad to be able to tap into both the labor market and the consumer market in these neighboring countries.
Colin: That analysis by Rodger Baker. Thanks for being with us at Stratfor today. See you next time.
