An Increasingly Unstable Iraq
Video Transcript:
Video Transcript:
A string of attacks involving bombs placed in cars in and around Baghdad killed at least 22 people Jan. 22. This violence comes on the heels of al Qaeda claiming responsibility for a wave of attacks across Iraq. Although daily violent attacks have become the norm in Iraq, violence is increasingly breaking down along more than just sectarian lines. There is a widening target base for violence, combined with sustained protests and intensifying tensions within the Sunnis and Shiite factions. In addition, the spillover of Sunni extremist militants from Syria into Iraq is placing mounting pressure on the central government. As al-Maliki’s government tries to consolidate power, the violence and ethno-sectarian tensions will continue to increase. This will threaten the Shiite government’s hold on power and Iran’s ability to maintain its sphere of influence in the country.
Although much of the violence that takes place in Iraq involves Sunni attacks on police and security forces and Shiite and Kurdish targets, an increasing number of Sunni militant attacks are targeting Sunni individuals and groups who do not support the Sunni militant vision for Iraq. A recent example involves al Qaeda’s Jan. 15 suicide bombing and assassination of Sunni lawmaker Ifan Saadoun al-Issawi, whom al Qaeda stated was the "head of the dog of the Americans." The ability of al Qaeda in Iraq to expand their target set in addition to carrying out attacks on traditional targets indicate a degree of increased militant support or at the very least more efficient planning and coordination efforts.
In addition to a spike in violence, Iraq has seen sustained anti-government protests for over a month, proving to be some of the most significant protests by government opposition in five years. In response, the government has attempted to offer some concessions, which have in turn further emboldened the Sunni opposition to increase their list of demands to include the release of female detainees and early elections.
The pressure facing the government is not only Sunni driven, as there are increasing tensions among the Shiites. The Iranian-aligned Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has faced a constant opposition in parliament driven in part by the competing Shiite al-Sadrite movement. In recent weeks, the al-Sadrite leader Muqtada al-Sadr has called for “million man marches” in opposition to al-Maliki and has even threatened to side with the Sunnis and the Kurds. Although al-Sadr takes caution to restrain his rivalry to ensure the Sunnis cannot threaten the Shiite’s hold on power, tensions among the Shiites, combined with an increase in violence and protests, place the central government under mounting pressure.
Unable to appease elements of the opposition, violence and ethno-sectarian tensions will continue and will likely increase -- especially as the situation in Syria continues to unravel. The foreign fighters and jihadists that have flowed into Syria during the past two years will not likely abandon their jihad against Sunni oppressors once Syria’s al Assad is removed from power. There is already evidence of cross-border coordination between Sunnis in the two countries.
As Syria destabilizes and creates a spillover effect in Iraq, Iran will not only be at risk of losing its foothold in the Levant, where it has enjoyed influence in Syria for years, Iran will also be at risk of loosing its influence in Iraq as the political and security situations in Iraq become increasingly difficult to manage.
