Azerbaijan and Russia Strengthen Ties
Video Transcript:
Azerbaijan and Russia signed a protocol July 24 on the construction of a new bridge between the two countries' border on the Samur River. Russia has been increasing ties with Azerbaijan on a number of different levels in recent weeks, ranging from energy to security to economic cooperation. The geopolitical forces in the Caucasus are currently shifting in favor of Russia and against the West, and Azerbaijan is the most important country to watch in this regard.
There have been several notable developments between Russia and Azerbaijan recently. These include discussions on expanding energy cooperation between SOCAR and Rosneft, Azerbaijan and Russia's leading oil producing companies, respectively. The two companies are considering resuming and expanding oil supplies via the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline, as well as pursuing joint projects in third countries. Azerbaijan also recently completed a $1 billion weapons purchase from Russia last month, and Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly planning to pay a visit Baku in August.
However, all of these developments do not come out of Azerbaijan's affinity for Russia. Indeed, Azerbaijan has long been the most independent-minded player in the Caucasus and is wary of getting too close to Russia. Azerbaijan has used its position as a significant energy producer and exporter to diversify its relationships without relying too much on any one power. For example, Azerbaijan sends natural gas supplies to nearly all of its neighbors, including Russia, Iran, Turkey, and farther on to Europe via the Southern Corridor pipeline route. Azerbaijan has similarly diversified its security relationships, cooperating with Turkey, Georgia, and Israel, while avoiding membership in any entangling alliances like Russia's CSTO [Collective Security Treaty Organization] or NATO.
Rather, Azerbaijan's position can be explained due to external constraints, primarily Russia's growing position in other parts of the Caucasus. In Georgia, the emergence of Bidzina Ivanishvili and his Georgian Dream movement has given Russia a solid foothold in what was previously a fervently pro-Western country. Ivanishvili, a billionaire tycoon who made his fortune in Russia, has lobbied to expand ties with Russia and adopt a more pragmatic stance than the one taken by Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili.
Meanwhile, Russia's already strong position in neighboring Armenia continues to grow as well. Azerbaijan fought a war with Armenia over the breakaway territory of Nagorno-Karabakh in the late 1980s and early '90s, and tensions remain between the two countries to this day. Russia is a de facto guarantor of Armenia's security, with 5,000 Russian troops stationed on Armenia's soil. In response to Azerbaijan's efforts to expand security ties with the likes of Turkey and Israel, Russia has only increased its security support and presence in Armenia, sending new and more modern weapons to supply its military base in Gyumri and extending its lease there until 2044.
These developments have been of tremendous concern to Azerbaijan and therefore Baku has had to change its strategic calculus vis-a-vis Moscow. Azerbaijan understands that challenging Russia too much can put it in a compromising position, and this explains the growing cooperation between Baku and Moscow on a number of different levels. At the same time, Azerbaijan has continued to pursue a strategy of diversification in order to guard its sovereignty, as seen in the recent deal to build the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline across Turkey to Southern Europe. Ultimately, Azerbaijan will try to pursue its diversification strategy while not being too aggressive toward Russia, but at the moment the advantage in the Caucasus is clearly on the side of Moscow.
