Latest Terrorism and Security Analysis

Geopolitical Calendar: Week of Jan. 26, 2015

This is an internal Stratfor document listing significant meetings and events for the next week.

A Ukrainian soldier rides atop a vehicle near Donetsk on Jan. 23. (Oleksandr Stashevskiy/AFP/Getty Images)

Red Alert Update: At the Heart of the Mariupol Crisis

The current round of fighting around Mariupol has quieted down. That does not mean that it is over, however, because the strategic issues underlying the problem have not changed.

A car burns amid debris after rockets shelled the city of Mariupol, Ukraine, on Jan. 24. (Image from Reuters video)

Red Alert: Rocket Fire Could Signal New Offensive on Mariupol

Stratfor has declared a Red Alert over Ukraine as we watch for signs of a new offensive. We do not yet know Russia’s strategic intentions. Reports of rocket fire and potential moves on the city of Mariupol could simply be an attempt to signal the danger Russia could pose to their negotiating partners in the West. It could be an attempt to extend the pocket separatists supported by Russia currently hold in eastern Ukraine. It could, finally, be the opening of an offensive toward Crimea.