Nationalist-socialists gaining ground in Poland

Something has changed in the political atmosphere in Poland. Frustration appears to be growing among Poles, especially those of the younger generation.

While 14 percent of Poles are unemployed, that figure rises to roughly 27 percent among people under the age of 25. What's worse, even when young people do find a job, their chances of receiving a proper, full-time job contract are slim. It is now the norm for companies to offer young employees temporary work contracts, which offer little social protection.

This saves the companies money they would otherwise have to pay in various taxes and pension contributions, but also means young Poles have practically no access to credit, much less to a mortgage.

As a result, almost half of Poles aged 25-34 live with their parents, compared to the EU average of 28 percent. It is therefore hardly a surprise that the most popular party in Poland is currently Law and Justice (PiS), a nationalist party with a socialistic economic philosophy.

A July SMG/KRC voter survey had PiS with 35 percent support while the center-right, pro-business ruling Civic Platform (PO) had the backing of 26 percent of Poles. The poll was taken after both parties had held their party conventions.

Re-Polonize the banks, defend Polish ownership of strategic sectors

At the PiS convention, party leader Jarosław Kaczyński lambasted the current government for Poland’s unimpressive GDP growth of 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2013.

He vowed to “defend Polish ownership in strategic sectors of the economy,” and “re-Polonize banks in Poland within rational economic boundaries.” Roughly 72 percent of the banking system in Poland is in foreign hands, a reality Mr Kaczyński aims to reverse.

Mr Kaczyński said he would rebuild Polish industry, “which has been limited in a manner that was completely unjustified.” Then there were classic leftist calls for the minimum wage to be raised and for limits to the use of temporary contracts, which leave young people with a sense of instability.

The PiS leader described private pension funds as “lionlike companies in which one side, the private owners, have guaranteed benefits while the second party, the payees of compulsory pension premiums, take the risk but have unspecified rights.” It was after this widely-publicized speech that support for PiS jumped to its highest level in recent years.

The party of the PiS'ed-off

Granted, parliamentary elections are scheduled for 2015, but PiS has already scored some significant victories in local elections. And these victories have sometimes come in previous PO strongholds. After a PiS candidate won a mayoral election in the northern city of Elbląg last weekend, party spokesperson Adam Hofman said they are now “coming for [Warsaw Mayor] Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz.”

He was referring to the fact Ms Gronkiewicz-Waltz, who is also a deputy leader in the ruling party, is facing a recall election as many citizens of Poland's capital are dissatisfied with her administration.

If she is booted out of office, it would be a huge blow to PO, whose support has always come from Poland's urban, middle-class voters.

PO is the party of the satiated and the aspiring middle-class. Meanwhile, PiS has always been the party of the angry.

When they won parliamentary elections in 2005, it was largely because many Poles were upset over a series of corruption scandals that had plagued the leftist-led government which ruled from 2001 to 2005. Mr Kaczyński promised a “moral revolution” then, and Poles voted him in.

But the promised revolution never came. Instead PiS committed one PR blunder after the other and was booted out of power in snap elections called in 2007. By then EU funds had started flooding into the country, and a credit boom was underway.

In short, the satisfied outnumbered the dissatisfied and PO took power. In the 2011 parliamentary polls, Prime Minister Donald Tusk was still able to argue that he had steered the country through the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, with Poland the only EU country not to fall into recession in 2009. Also, Polish GDP expanded by a healthy 3.9 percent in 2010. The year 2011 was even better, with the Polish economy growing by 4.5 percent. Once again, the satisfied outnumbered the angry and PO won the elections.

A dry period

Today, such growth rates seem a distant dream. Also, EU funds allocated Poland for the 2007-2013 budgetary period have already been spent and many local governments are currently experiencing financial difficulties and are resorting to introducing various taxes, consequently annoying many of their residents. Donald Tusk is likely hoping that once the funds allocated Poland for the 2014-2020 period start flooding in next year, the national mood will improve.

However, if the government is not able to come up with any solutions to combat the rising tide of frustration among Poland's young and their increasing feeling of instability, PiS could win big in the coming elections. What's more, parliamentary polls might occur earlier than 2015 as the ruling party is currently engaged in fierce inter-factional fighting due to upcoming internal elections that will determine the party's regional and national leadership for the next couple of years. And so rather than observing a ruling party trying to manage their country efficiently, for the next few months, Poles will see a PO absorbed with itself. This does not bode well for the ruling party's popularity in the immediate future.

Nationalists emboldened

All the while, various nationalist and skinhead groups have been emboldened and are emerging from the underground. They now regularly organize marches and cases of racist and anti-Semitic graffiti being sprayed on the walls of Polish cities are on the rise. Poland's interior minister Bartłomiej Sienkiewicz has acknowledged the growing problem and is making efforts to tackle the issue.

Let's hope it is not too late and Poland does not become another Hungary, with Mr Kaczyński playing the role of Viktor Orbán, a politician he has repeatedly expressed admiration for. In fact, after PiS lost the 2011 parliamentary elections, Mr Kaczyński stated that he is “deeply convinced that there will come a day when we will be victorious, when we will have a Budapest in Warsaw.”

That dream is now closer than ever to becoming reality.