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After 14 years in power, El Salvador's rightwing Nationalist Republican Alliance (Arena) could lose the presidency to a socialist candidate in elections on March 21, 2004. A recent national poll conducted by the Technological University (Utec), which is located in the capital city of San Salvador, showed that if the people voted today, the socialist Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN) would defeat Arena by 36.01 percent to 25.84 percent.
The poll also showed that 26.96 percent of the country's 3.4 million eligible voters do not have a clear preference or don't know who they might vote for in March 2004. These numbers suggest that voters still could reverse Arena's decline at the polls -- especially if the party fields a competitive presidential candidate and develops a campaign platform that appeals broadly to Salvadoran voters. However, the odds currently don't favor Arena.
None of the party's would-be candidates appear to generate much excitement, even inside the party. Arena leaders also have reverted to Cold War rhetoric, charging that the FMLN plans to establish a socialist regime that would cripple individual liberties, scare off investors and destabilize the rest of Central America. Moreover, the Bush administration has joined Arena in criticizing the FMLN.
Former U.S. Ambassador Rose M. Likins, whose three-year posting to San Salvador ended in early June, told news media there recently that if an FMLN candidate becomes president, the Bush administration would have to re-evaluate its relations with the country. Likins did not explain what she meant, but FMLN and Arena officials both interpreted her remarks as a warning that Washington will scale back its engagement with El Salvador if the FMLN wins.
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