Free Preview of Members-Only Content
To view the requested intelligence, you must be a Stratfor.com member.
Russia has been especially active during the past several months in consolidating power in the Kremlin and reinforcing its position in its near abroad. The "color revolutions" in the former Soviet Union (FSU) have destabilized the Russian flank and precipitated moves to centralize and reinforce Moscow's power in the region. Recent incidents in several FSU countries resulted from Russian action or reaction and represent the former regional overlord's attempts to slowly start its comeback.
Russia has for the past two decades conducted a policy of trying to strengthen itself through economics at the cost of geographical influence. Russian President Vladimir Putin has recently decided that this plan will not give Russia the best chance to remain a strong player in the world arena. Thus, in efforts to tie the periphery back to Russia, Putin is making moves to create new tensions -- or exacerbate old ones -- in the friction points surrounding Russia.
Ukraine
Ukraine has been at the forefront of international attention of late, primarily because recent events there have affected Western European states. The Russo-Ukrainian natural gas debacle, which reduced supplies to Germany and other countries, put Europe on alert and led it to reconsider its current reliance on Russian energy. In particular, Germany will delay and possibly scrap the construction of a natural gas pipeline directly connecting it to Russia. The second gas shutoff to Europe, blamed on cold weather and Ukraine's blatant siphoning of natural gas meant for delivery to the Continent, has further cast Russia as an unreliable energy partner.
However, Russia is willing to accept this economic risk to gain geopolitically. Endangering Ukraine's political shift toward the West is worth the inconvenience; Russia considers Ukraine's alignment a paramount concern because Ukraine's geography is vital to Russian security and physical integrity. Without Ukraine, Russia's ability to control Belarus, the North Caucasus and other areas would be greatly diminished. Putin might say he is involved in Ukrainian politics out of concern for the Russian minority there, but he is certainly involved for his own interests.
| Stratfor Members, please log in at the top left hand corner |
