The events in Egypt are more complex than most of media are describing. While the new regime is doing what the demonstrators wanted, it is also increasing the power of the military.
If the long-term center of gravity of Israel's national security is the neutrality of Egypt, then doing everything to maintain that is a military requirement. (With STRATFOR maps.)
While on the surface, protests in Jordan appear similar to those in Egypt, the nature of the political systems and grievances in each country make the threats to regime stability much different.
In the face of the unrest in Egypt, STRATFOR's job is to sort through all the claimants and wannabees of this revolution and find out who the main powers really are.
Whether the younger Mubarak has actually left Egypt is less important than the fact that a U.S.-based news site was the source of the rumor and that Washington has issued a denial.
The recently discovered explosive-parcel plot will put renewed focus on Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, but Yemen's government is limited in its ability to fight the jihadists.
The explosive-parcel operation failed to reach its first objective but did attain its second, which was to generate worldwide media coverage and sow fear in the West.
