Russia is using increased energy export duties to pressure Tajikistan to allow an expanded Russian security presence in the Central Asian country. (With STRATFOR map)
A return to a strong presidency in Kyrgyzstan would be unlikely to resolve the country's deep internal divisions and could create larger problems for the government and for Russia.
A protest in a small town in Tajikistan, along with other simmering discontent in the region, could lead to increased tensions in the country. (With STRATFOR map)