The British Detainees: Reading Diplomatic Signals

Austin, TX, April 4, 2007 – Stratfor’s geopolitical intelligence report this week discusses the situation of the British detainees who have been held by Iran and examines their capture as part of an ongoing dialogue between the United States and Iran, rather than the trigger for an international crisis. The crux of the conversation has always been Iraq, and of course there is the question of Iran’s future nuclear capability. At this point, both sides in the negotiations are trying to impress upon the other not only that they retain some options, but that their moves cannot be easily predicted. Both want to be seen as retaining the option of surprise. The capture of the British personnel should be read not so much as having been the trigger for an international crisis, but as a diplomatic signal. If the Americans or the Iranians believed it was possible to achieve their own ideal outcomes in negotiations, either the capture or the U.S. military surge into Iraq would not have come about. The game for each now is an effort to secure an outcome that can be lived with – not an outright victory.

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