Stratfor Podcasts

A New Deal for Lebanon

dialDC — Wed, 21 May 2008 08:21:15 -0500

Government and opposition negotiators have agreed to new power-sharing arrangements meant to end Lebanon’s violent political crisis.

Latin America: Food As a Weapon in Diplomatic Dispute

dialDC — Tue, 20 May 2008 08:02:21 -0500

The regional food crisis takes a new twist as Venezuela’s main supplier of imported meat, Colombia, halts almost all shipments to its neighbor. It’s the latest salvo in a deepening political crisis over the Venezuelan regime’s support for FARC guerrillas.

Pumping Saudi Oil May Ease Troubled Waters

dialDC — Mon, 19 May 2008 06:55:28 -0500

Relief on the oil supply side as the Saudis agree to pump an extra 300,000 bpd. Saudi output will now be at its highest level for two years. Is this the shot in the arm the world economy needs? Maybe — but it’s also more than that.

Iran's Oil: Market Strategy or Domestic Insecurity?

dialDC — Fri, 16 May 2008 08:12:05 -0500

Iran is on track to store up to a week’s worth of national oil production offshore. There are signs that, rather than a strategy to benefit from record prices, the move reflects a drop-off in demand for Iranian crude — something with serious domestic implications.

Venezuela: Oil-for-Food Plans Place Political Constraints

dialDC — Thu, 15 May 2008 07:53:37 -0500

President Hugo Chavez has been bartering Venezuela’s oil for food and other goods, hoping to ease shortages that are hurting the poor. But Stratfor says the policy could prove politically damaging to Chavez in the long term.

Bush Visits a Middle East in Political Crisis

dialDC — Wed, 14 May 2008 07:54:30 -0500

The American president’s tour of the Middle East throws a new spotlight on domestic crises and wider conflicts in Israel, Lebanon and beyond.

Mexico's Cartel Wars: Toward a Tipping Point?

dialDC — Tue, 13 May 2008 08:24:17 -0500

Mexico’s drug violence has reached a new threshold, with the Sinaloa cartel now directly targeting government forces in the capital city. The cartel wars, always complex, are spiraling into a larger geopolitical issue.

Food-Fuel Crisis: Poor Countries Lose, Who Wins?

cchapman — Mon, 12 May 2008 04:43:34 -0500

Crude oil and corn prices have again hit record highs. Oil is now double the level of a year ago, and this ongoing surge has pushed up the prices of farm crops such as corn and soy beans for biofuels, which in turn has bloated food price inflation. In the United States alone, the biofuel industry is expected to take one-third of the corn crop. The losers in this state of affairs are poor countries that import both oil and food. But who are the winners? Colin Chapman investigates.

Pastures New: China Seeks To Buy Foreign Farms for Food

cchapman — Fri, 09 May 2008 02:02:15 -0500

The Chinese leadership is considering a proposal by the country’s Department of Agriculture to provide incentives for companies to buy or lease farmland overseas. The purpose: to improve food security in the years ahead. Target areas include Australia, Africa and South America. Colin Chapman and Donna Kwok discuss China’s reasons - and its targets.

The Gulf of Aden: A Resurgent Theater of Jihadist Operations

dialDC — Thu, 08 May 2008 07:41:41 -0500

Recent events in Somalia and Yemen have thrown a spotlight on the re-emergence of al Qaeda’s regional nodes. Senior security analyst Scott Stewart discusses the state of development and implications of jihadist power in this strategically important part of the world.

Russia: Investment Law Caps Putin's Presidency

dialDC — Wed, 07 May 2008 06:59:15 -0500

Shortly before handing off power to new President Dmitry Medvedev, Vladimir Putin codified the Kremlin’s interest in key economic sectors. Analyst Peter Zeihan explains how the new law will affect foreign investors and maximize the power of the Russian state.

Dumplings Threaten China's Chopstick Diplomacy

cchapman — Tue, 06 May 2008 06:02:54 -0500

China’s president, Hu Jintao, arrives in Tokyo, presenting a friendly face and an end to rancor between his country and Japan. But the case of the bad dumplings may poison high expectations for the talks, Donna Kwok, Stratfor’s East Asia analyst, tells Colin Chapman.

Israel: Storm Clouds for Olmert

dialDC — Mon, 05 May 2008 07:23:55 -0500

A fresh corruption probe targeting Israel’s prime minister carries geopolitical implications.

Afghanistan: Selective Engagement with the Taliban?

dialDC — Fri, 02 May 2008 11:49:24 -0500

With some NATO troops seeking tactical-level talks with Taliban insurgents, Stratfor’s Middle East director, Kamran Bokhari, discusses the possibilities and pitfalls of any “selective engagement” policy for Afghanistan.

Afghanistan: Talking to the Taliban?

dialDC — Fri, 02 May 2008 06:39:00 -0500

There’s been quiet talk within NATO circles on whether to seek negotiations with some Taliban elements in Afghanistan. While direct, high-level talks involving NATO officials are unlikely, some are encouraging dialogue at the tactical level. Stratfor’s Middle East Director Kamran Bokhari explores the question with Marla Dial.

Death on the Border, Down Mexico Way

cchapman — Thu, 01 May 2008 05:13:36 -0500

Mexican troops and police are closely guarding a Tijuana hospital to prevent reprisals against eight alleged members of a drug gang hurt in recent clashes. About 900 people have been killed in drug-related violence in Mexico this year, about 200 of them in Tijuana.Colin Chapman talks to Fred Burton, Stratfor’s terrorism expert, on the uptick in violence.

Yemen: A Low-Level Campaign of Economic Terror?

dialDC — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 05:41:54 -0500

Another explosion near an embassy in Sanaa points toward the resurgence of an al Qaeda node, which may have all that’s required for an effective low-intensity campaign against the West.

Iran: Pipeline Diplomacy in South Asia

dialDC — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 07:35:39 -0500

India’s government hosts Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for talks on a $7 billion gas pipeline project, deepening the difficulties Washington faces in its attempts to keep Iran isolated. Marla Dial reports.

Afghanistan: Between a Rock and Several Hard Places

cchapman — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 02:32:44 -0500

The Taliban’s audacious attack against Afghanistan’s president highlights the difficulties NATO faces in beating the jihadists. Geography and difficulties in obtaining cooperation from neighboring Pakistan and Iran will make life difficult for Gen. David Petraeus as CENTCOM chief - as America’s ally, Australia’s Kevin Rudd, acknowledges. Colin Chapman reports.

China Reaches Out to Dalai Lama

dialDC — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 08:21:59 -0500

Seeking to stifle at least one aspect of Olympics-related protests, China says it will hold talks with a representative of the Dalai Lama. Meanwhile, activist pressures on another front are set to grow. Marla Dial reports.

Israel: Rumors of War, Rumors of Peace

dialDC — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 07:19:15 -0500

There’s talk of a possible peace deal between Israel and Syria over the Golan Heights. Stratfor explores the questions of why such a peace deal, which would formally end their 1973 war, could make sense now — and how Iran is involved.

The Political Ploy Behind Al Qaeda's Audio

dialDC — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 07:18:48 -0500

Recent statements from al Qaeda’s No. 2 man, Ayman al-Zawahiri, speak volumes about fear and loathing in the Middle East and the jihadist groups goal of playing spoiler in Iraq. Analyst Kamran Bokhari and Marla Dial explore.

Parsing Al Qaeda's PR

dialDC — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 05:19:17 -0500

In this members-only podcast, Middle East Director Kamran Bokhari and Marla Dial explore the meaning behind al Qaeda’s recent Q&A initiatives and the significance of Ayman al-Zawahiri’s statements on Iran.

Supplies the Worry as Oil Price Spike Continues

cchapman — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 01:12:32 -0500

While oil demand — especially from China — grows, there are worries about supply, with issues emerging also about the long-term contribution of ethanol.

South Africa: Unions Refuse To Unload Arms for Mugabe

cchapman — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 07:18:28 -0500

South Africa’s High Court and waterfront unions refuse to allow a Chinese ship to unload its arms cargo for transshipment to Harare and Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe — defying South African President Thabo Mbeki.