The Devolution of Al Qaeda

Al Qaeda has yet to follow its spectacular 9/11 attacks in the United States with anything nearly as dramatic or effective. Why? The once-centralized terrorist group is becoming more amorphous. Yet the likelihood of another big attack could increase as memories of 9/11 fade and as jihadists hone their skills in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Key Analysis
Terrorism Weekly
Graphic for Terrorism Intelligence Report
Al Qaeda in 2008: The Struggle for Relevance
December 19, 2007 1814 GMT
There are two battlegrounds in the war against jihadism: the physical and the ideological. Because of its operational security considerations, the al Qaeda core has been marginalized in the physical battle, causing it to take up the mantle of leadership in the ideological battle. As we head into 2008, however, there are signs that the ideological war is not going so well for the jihadists. [more]
Members of Mauritania's new junta
Mauritania: The Unlikelihood of al Qaeda's Threat
August 13, 2008 2250 GMT
Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb will use a coup in Mauritania to recruit members and build support but will remain focused on Algeria. (With Stratfor map) [more]
Algerian police officers at scene of a bombing
Algeria: Train Bombing Proves Deadly
June 8, 2008 2201 GMT
A dozen or more people reportedly were killed June 8 when a pair of bombs exploded in quick succession at an Algerian train station at Beni Amrane, about 50 miles east of Algiers. [more]
Pakistan--Outside Danish Embassy in Islamabad, June 2
Pakistan: Suicide Bombing at Danish Embassy
June 2, 2008 0959 GMT
At least eight people were killed and 24 others were wounded June 2 in a suicide attack after a vehicle loaded with explosives detonated in a parking lot outside the Danish Embassy in Islamabad. [more]
Osama and Umar Hamza bin Laden
Al Qaeda: Creative Recruiting for Suicide Bombers
May 5, 2008 2235 GMT
Osama bin Laden's 18-year-old son is recruiting young people -- particularly those with mental deficiencies or from broken homes -- to form small jihadist cells, a source told Stratfor. [more]
al-qaeda in africa - 2002 hotel bombing in kenya
Somalia: Al Qaeda and Al Shabab
May 5, 2008 2032 GMT
The Somalian militant group al Shabab's relationship with al Qaeda -- and the implications of that relationship -- bears examination. (With Stratfor map) [more]
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