The Devolution of Al Qaeda

Al Qaeda has yet to follow its spectacular 9/11 attacks in the United States with anything nearly as dramatic or effective. Why? The once-centralized terrorist group is becoming more amorphous. Yet the likelihood of another big attack could increase as memories of 9/11 fade and as jihadists hone their skills in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Key Analysis
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Al Qaeda in 2008: The Struggle for Relevance
December 19, 2007 1814 GMT
There are two battlegrounds in the war against jihadism: the physical and the ideological. Because of its operational security considerations, the al Qaeda core has been marginalized in the physical battle, causing it to take up the mantle of leadership in the ideological battle. As we head into 2008, however, there are signs that the ideological war is not going so well for the jihadists. [more]
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Global Security and Intelligence Report
The Death of a Top Indonesian Militant
September 23, 2009 1744 GMT
The death of top Indonesian militant leader Noordin Mohammad Top leaves a significant leadership vacuum, and his group will be challenged to fill it. [more]
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Global Security and Intelligence Report
Algeria: Taking the Pulse of AQIM
June 24, 2009 1921 GMT
An unusually deadly attack in Algeria on June 17 could have been a fluke, or a sign that skilled jihadists are returning home from foreign battlefields. [more]
A bubonic plague smear indicating the presence of the Yersinia pestis bacteria
Algeria: Al Qaeda and the Plague
January 21, 2009 1806 GMT
Forty members of al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb are said to have died in Algeria from the plague. [more]
Lebanese women protest Israel's military operation in Gaza
Al Qaeda: The Insignificance of bin Laden's Latest Message
January 14, 2009 2049 GMT
Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden released an audio message Jan. 14. As al Qaeda prime's significance has faded, so too has the significance of such messages from bin Laden. [more]
Members of Mauritania's new junta
Mauritania: The Unlikelihood of al Qaeda's Threat
August 13, 2008 2250 GMT
Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb will use a coup in Mauritania to recruit members and build support but will remain focused on Algeria. (With Stratfor map) [more]
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