Although a clash between Georgia and Russia over the secessionist region of Abkhazia seemed very possible last week as both players positioned troops, a trigger is still necessary before this long-standing feud erupts.(With Stratfor map)[more]
The following are internal Stratfor documents produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. These documents are not forecasts, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus. [more]
Georgia has warned that war with Russia over the secessionist region of Abkhazia is highly likely. Meanwhile, Russia has moved troops into regions around Georgia while saying that the Georgians have massed troops. The crisis is turning hotter. [more]
Russia and Georgia could be gearing up for an open conflict -- one which could easily escalate into a broader conflict in the Caucasus. (With Stratfor map)[more]
Georgia said April 21 it has video evidence that a Russian fighter plane shot down a Georgian reconnaissance aircraft April 20 in Georgian airspace. (With Stratfor map)[more]
Though the April 2-4 summit in Bucharest, Romania, is still under way, enough decisions have been made to establish the summit’s agenda regarding enlargement. [more]
The day after U.S. President George W. Bush voiced support for Georgia's membership in NATO, Russia has made plans to send more peacekeepers to Georgia's breakaway regions and possibly recognize their independence. (With Stratfor map)[more]
The United States and Canada have championed the NATO membership bids of Georgia and Ukraine — publicly pushing an issue that is highly sensitive in Russia. In this members-only podcast, Director of Global Analysis Peter Zeihan explains why the West is choosing this strategy, and how Russia might respond. [more]
The United States and Canada have championed the NATO membership bids of Georgia and Ukraine — publicly pushing an issue that is highly sensitive in Russia. Stratfor’s director of global analysis, Peter Zeihan, tells Marla Dial why the West is choosing this strategy. [more]
At a meeting with Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili, U.S. President George W. Bush said Washington will push for Georgia's NATO membership at the alliance's April 2 meeting -- a move that goes directly against Russia's wishes. [more]
We have been watching for a Russian reaction to Kosovo's declaration of independence. On Wednesday, that response appeared to come in the form of pressure on two former Soviet states: Ukraine and Georgia. [more]
