United States

There are those who say that perception is reality. Geopolitics teaches the exact opposite: There is a fundamental reality to national power, and the passing passions of the public have only a transitory effect on things. [more]

Russian media have been rife with rumors, confirmations — and now denials — that Moscow might send nuclear-capable strategic bombers to Cuba. An interpretation of the press play, and the message being sent to Washington. [more]

Stratfor considers the potential impact of a return of Russian submarines -- rather than Russian aircraft -- to Cuba. (With Stratfor map). [more]

Rumors are flying about a new Russian presence in Cuba.(With Stratfor map). [more]

Russia has been talking to Cuba about putting a base in the Caribbean country -- but a small aerial refueling base, not a facility holding any munitions. [more]

While many factors contribute to higher oil prices, they have a greater effect on price volatility, which works both ways and is of more importance. [more]

A U.S.-EU agreement on agriculture is necessary for the World Trade Organization's Doha talks to make progress. But even then, progress is not assured. [more]

The threat posed by Hurricane Dolly's landfall near the U.S.-Mexican border exacerbates the already dangerous security situation there. [more]

A weekly approximation of the current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Expeditionary Strike Groups, based on available open-source information. (With Stratfor map) [more]

A decision two weeks ago by the Denver Water Board to close a road running over Dillion Dam provides an opening to examine the factors and feasibility involved in a potential threat to contaminate the water supply there or elsewhere. [more]

Qatar has inked a deal with Boeing Corp. for an unspecified number of C-17 Globemaster III strategic airlifters. [more]

Despite a recent hardening in U.S. negotiating rhetoric, and even though political jockeying and military posturing will increase in the coming weeks, U.S.-Iranian negotiations are on solid footing. [more]

Tropical Storm Dolly, which is expected to become a hurricane July 22, puts energy infrastructure in the western Gulf of Mexico at risk. (With Stratfor map) [more]

After a short spate of relative calm, the wars between Mexico’s drug cartels and the government have been ratcheting up again — and there are indications that someone may be circulating rumors in an attempt to capture Washington’s attention. [more]

A buildup of Western military forces in Afghanistan along the Pakistani border is creating a buzz in the region and beyond, but U.S. forces are not on the verge of conducting large-scale military operations in Pakistan just yet. [more]

A weekly approximation of the current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Expeditionary Strike Groups, based on available open-source information. (With Stratfor map) [more]

The flap caused by the closure of a road over a dam in Colorado due to security concerns provides an opportunity to revisit jihadist militants' ability to operate inside the United States and the type of targets they might attack. [more]

Georgia announced Tuesday that it would ramp up its military and defense budget while the United States has deployed 1,000 troops to train with their Georgian counterparts. Meanwhile Russia has launched 8,000 troops in the North Caucasus region. [more]

Violence between drug traffickers and U.S. Border Patrol agents on the U.S.-Mexican border has increased 22 percent so far this year -- but that growth is slower than the increase in violent incidents seen in 2007.(With Stratfor map). [more]

The Bush administration has let it be known that it is prepared to reduce U.S. troop levels in Iraq. [more]