Sub-Saharan Africa

Jean-Pierre Bemba was reportedly transferred July 3 to the International Criminal Court (ICC) at The Hague, where he is expected to face war crimes charges. [more]

South Africa is calling for negotiations between Zimbabwe's ruling party and the opposition -- but a change in the status quo in Harare is unlikely. [more]

U.S. President George W. Bush’s original “axis of evil” has all but collapsed in the six years since the phrase was coined. However, problems remain with second-tier countries like Zimbabwe, where the outcome of the June 27 presidential run-off is a foregone conclusion. But are there hints of change in the air? [more]

South Africa's main labor umbrella organization has called on its members to isolate Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe. [more]

Political rhetoric against Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe’s regime has reached a fever pitch, with a unanimous U.N. Security Council vote on a non-binding resolution and ongoing talks among southern African leaders. But trade flows will be the key indicator of coming political change. [more]

Nigerian militant group Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta is giving the Ijaw tribe more influence in upcoming talks with the government. [more]

Zimbabwe's opposition Movement for Democratic Change leader Morgan Tsvangirai announced June 22 he will pull out of the country's June 27 presidential runoff. [more]

The following are internal Stratfor documents produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. These documents are not forecasts, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus. [more]

A militant attack on an offshore oil platform represents a warning to the Nigerian government as it prepares to convene a summit focusing on the troubled Niger Delta region. [more]

A militant attack against oil infrastructure in the Niger Delta region has disproportionate effects on global energy markets. A look at the underlying issues. [more]

Though the ruling junta in Guinea has made some concessions to the opposition about high food and fuel prices, President Lansana Conte's regime will stay in power as long as it controls the country's mineral resources. [more]

The United States evacuated non-essential employees from its embassy in the Chadian capital as fighting continued between Chadian soldiers and rebel forces in the country's east. [more]

The following are internal Stratfor documents produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. These documents are not forecasts, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus. [more]

A June 12 hike in interest rates by South Africa's central bank signals an impending showdown with the nation's largest labor organization. [more]

A peace deal between the Somalian government and Islamist insurgents announced June 9 probably will win the Somalian government more foreign aid, but it most likely will not end the insurgency. [more]

The Zimbabwean government's move to suspend the operation of aid agencies is a move to prolong its rule. [more]

Uganda, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and southern Sudan agreed to jointly fight the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) should peace talks with the rebel group collapse, a Ugandan military spokesman said June 5.(With Stratfor map) [more]

Despite its risks, China's high oil prices plus its thirst for the commodity make an oil deal in Niger worth chancing for Beijing. [more]

A senior Russian naval officer said June 3 that Russia's fleet was prepared to deploy to Somalian waters if needed. [more]

Japan will use increased development and food assistance in its quest to distinguish itself from other countries competing for secure access to Africa's resources. [more]