Israel, Syria and Lebanon: A Tangled Web

French tanks with the United Nations Interim Forces In Lebanon (UNIFIL) on April 2
A reduction in the U.N. force monitoring southern Lebanon hints at possible Israeli preparations for a rematch with Hezbollah. [more]
Iranian women holding pictures of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah
Major Arab powers are reaching out to select Hezbollah figures to exacerbate rifts in the Shiite movement, constrain Syria and undermine Iranian influence in the region. [more]
Posters of Syrian President Bashar al Assad (C), Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri (L) and his son Saad on a wall in West
Syria's agenda for Lebanon may have Turkish and Israeli backing. [more]
Syrian border employees stand behind a closed gate at Jussa al-Qaa border post with Lebanon
Syria reportedly has increased the number of its troops on the Lebanese border. [more]
Sheikh Nabil Qawuq, Hezbollah's military chief in south Lebanon
Rumors of the recent death of a Hezbollah leader indicate a nasty fight within Lebanese Shiite militant group's top ranks. [more]
Hezbollah - Flags and wreaths on coffins
July 21, 2008 1252 GMT
To attack? or not to attack Israel? That is the question that may well determine the future of Hezbollah and its status in Lebanon. A look at the fractures within the Shiite movement. [more]
Israel - Prisoner Swap with Hezbollah
Hezbollah and media commentators alike are treating the July 16 prisoner swap with Israel — which has received only the remains of slain soldiers in return for five living prisoners — as an unmitigated victory for the Shiite militant group. But less public events indicate that the walls are closing in on Hezbollah. [more]
knesset
On June 30, the Israeli Knesset passed a new law that sets boundaries on the withdrawal of territory under Israeli control. [more]
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad
There are a number of indications that peace talks between Syria and Israel are continuing to advance despite the political instability of the Jewish state. This progression could have grave implications for Hezbollah. [more]
Geopolitical Diary icon
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert hinted on Wednesday that direct, public talks between Israel and Syria are likely. A peace deal between the countries would effect changes in the Middle East and beyond. [more]
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert gets a military salute
Peace talks between Israel and Syria appear to be making progress despite the political turmoil surrounding Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. [more]
Israel--Talansky Entering Courtroom
Developments in the ongoing criminal case against Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert have not jeopardized Olmert's prime ministerial position; however, peace talks with Syria are on shaky ground. [more]
Geopolitical Diary icon
Two days after taking over western Beirut, Lebanese Shiite Islamist movement Hezbollah is gaining the upper hand -- and the Lebanese army has yet to come to the government's aid. [more]
lebanese soldiers
Clashes in Beirut between pro-government militias and Hezbollah are all in accordance with a plan. But the more chaotic Beirut becomes, the better Syria can justify its return as kingmaker. (With Stratfor maps) [more]
Geopolitical Diary icon
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert could be indicted on charges of bribery. There is violence in Lebanon between Hezbollah and those opposed to it. The Turks suspended Israeli-Syrian talks because of leaks. Things are in flux in the Middle East. [more]
Lebanese protester with burning tires
Violence spread throughout Lebanon on May 8 during a second day of protests by Hezbollah. [more]
Israel
The first in a series of monographs on the geopolitics of countries that are currently critical in world affairs. (With STRATFOR maps) [more]
Graphic for Geopolitical Intelligence Report
The Middle East, already monstrously complex, grew more complex last week. [more]
Geopolitical Diary icon
Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan said Ankara would continue to act as a go-between to encourage Israel and Syria to restart direct negotiations, Haaretz reported Monday. [more]
Geopolitical Diary icon
The Bush administration briefed the U.S. Congress on April 24 about the Sept. 6, 2007, Israeli raid on Syria. But why now? And why is the United States explaining an Israeli raid? [more]
To have STRATFOR's free intelligence reports emailed to you each week, click here.