GPS and its Competitors: The Status of Satellite Navigation

J.HUART/AFP/Getty Images

J.HUART/AFP/Getty Images
A computer image of three satellites of the proposed
EU Galileo satellite navigation system

Summary
The Russian Global Navigation Satellite System has survived the dark days of the post-Soviet period and is being reconstituted. Meanwhile, China is fielding its own Beidou satellite navigation system known as Compass. Europe seems finally ready to push forward with its Galileo program. But all three remain overshadowed by the U.S. Global Positioning System, which will continue to define global satellite navigation for the foreseeable future.

Analysis
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov complained on Jan. 26 to senior officials of Roscosmos (the Federal Aerospace Agency) that the Russian Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS) has not been effectively managed. Just last week, the Chinese were a bit more optimistic about their Beidou satellite navigation system, known as Compass. On Jan. 20, a senior official at the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp. announced that the last of 30 satellites is scheduled to be in orbit before 2015.

While satellite navigation has all manner of utility, it is most significant to STRATFOR as a military tool — one that can guide precision munitions onto targets anywhere in the world. At the moment, only the United States and its allies enjoy this capability.

Turkey is not the only regional player that has influence over Hamas — Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt do as well — but unlike its Arab neighbors, Turkey has openly criticized its ally Israel over the Gaza operation. Erdogan on Jan. 4 said Israel was “perpetrating inhuman actions which would bring it to self-destruction,” warning that “Allah will sooner or later punish those who transgress the rights of innocents.” Erdogan’s comments are not entirely unprecedented, as he also has criticized previous Israeli operations in the Palestinian territories — but his past comments have been nowhere near as severe.

There has been considerable concern, both within Turkey and internationally, that these comments could indicate that Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party is reverting to its Islamist roots. That is unlikely to happen, however. A significant chunk of the party is composed of non-Islamists, and the party itself was founded by individuals who broke with the Islamist core of Fazeelat, the AK Party’s predecessor, which was outlawed in 2001. In addition, the Turkish republic’s firm grounding in secularism makes it difficult or impossible for the ruling party to trend too far toward Islamism without being disbanded by the establishment.

The reason for Ankara’s harshly critical position toward Israel’s Operation Cast Lead can be found, rather, in the politics of the Arab world. At a time when the Arab masses perceive their leaders as either actively supporting Israel or at least doing nothing to stop it, Erdogan is gaining tremendous respect and appreciation in the Arab street for his condemnation of the Israeli offensive and his rhetorical defense of the Palestinians.



The Major Players


GPS
This is because the U.S. Global Positioning System (GPS) is the world’s only fully-deployed and operational (and thus premier) satellite navigation system. It is being upgraded again, with the first next-generation GPS III satellites scheduled to be launched by 2013. GPS has been up and running the longest. Its first satellites were in orbit by the late 1970s, with full operational capability achieved in 1995 with 24 satellites transmitting navigational data. Today, around 30 satellites are generally operational as part of the constellation.

The newest GPS III will have much greater transmission power (reportedly on the order of 500 times that of the current system), which will make for a more robust signal much more resistant to jamming. Jamming is a very real concern for U.S. planners, as adversaries look for asymmetric means to challenge U.S. technological dominance on the battlefield. While the transmission of signals to and from space-based assets is a perennial weak spot for any space-faring nation, GPS III currently seems poised to stay ahead of that challenge — and will certainly be better prepared than any other alternative system to resist and overpower jamming.

GLONASS
Ivanov may have legitimate complaints about mishandling of GLONASS. But according to the Information-Analytical Center of Roscosmos, the Russian constellation currently has some 17 operational satellites (with an 18th in the process of being commissioned), all launched after the turn of the century. This is indeed nothing to scoff at, even if Roscosmos’ own internal definition of “operational” may be overly generous.

Ivanov’s complaint was more pointed at the integration of efforts in not only getting new satellites into orbit, but modernizing ground control centers and outfitting the Russian military and the civilian market with hand-held GLONASS navigational receivers.

But even with sufficient satellites in orbit and civilian receivers on the market, GLONASS will remain hindered by years of neglect. While its satellites are new, during the time GLONASS was experiencing years of neglect, the GPS was thriving as a military and civilian tool — years and utility that the U.S. military has learned a great deal from and integrated into its next generation systems. GLONASS also has comparatively little experience with handheld military — and especially civilian — navigational receivers. This has inflicted a very real handicap on the Russian system, even as it renews itself with new satellites.

Compass
China’s first satellite of the Compass system went up in 2000. There are currently five in orbit, with plans for 10 additional satellites to be added over the next two years and a total of 30 before 2015. At the moment, the five satellites provide limited regional navigational services to the mainland.

Of all GPS’ three competitors, the Chinese have the most ground to make up before it can compete qualitatively with GPS, meaning that the system will have significantly lower accuracy and will almost certainly be more susceptible to jamming.

Galileo
Though Europe’s long-beleaguered Galileo continues to soldier on, it has largely died as a commercial endeavor because private funding on the order of US$3.3 billion never materialized for a service that would largely duplicate the already-free GPS service. Galileo has since received around US$4.5 billion in financing from the European Community budget, with collaboration between the European Commission and the European Space Agency. When all is said and done, its total estimated costs are expected to reach as high as US$12 billion.

Contracts to actually build the system are expected in the coming months.

Implications


Meanwhile, in 2004, the United States was able to outmaneuver France and keep the GPS military M-Code frequency separate from Galileo’s frequency. This has ensured that — at least hypothetically — GPS would be able to continue functioning on that frequency if Galileo’s frequency were jammed. Because GPS functions on both the M-Code and in the range of Galileo’s frequency, however, Galileo would not be able to function were GPS jammed.

In short, just as Russia is reconstituting GLONASS, China is pushing forward with Compass and Europe continues to struggle with the finer points of Galileo, GPS is poised to take another generational leap forward. And this leap is both in terms of military and civilian utility, ensuring that the world will continue to favor the U.S.-controlled system.

As the only fully functional global satellite navigation system, GPS continues to consolidate control of the civilian market. With all three alternatives at least a generation behind the curve (and possibly more), it will continue not only being free, but being the most competitive product on the market.

U.S. policy has long sought to coordinate “augmentation” of its GPS system, where other satellites can provide additional accuracy but work primarily in conjunction with the GPS system rather than separate from it. In addition to Galileo, the United States has had talks with Russia over GLONASS and discussed potential options with both Japan and India (both are beginning working on their own systems).

Given the superior capabilities of GPS, it is likely to remain a mainstay of NATO military operations even after Galileo comes online. And while the option for independent military operations free of reliance on GPS that a national satellite navigation system provides is indeed an attractive one, it comes at an enormous expense (billions of dollars), regular upkeep and will likely remain more vulnerable to interference than the more precise, robust and hardened GPS III.

But global precision-strike capability will become an increasingly important measure of military power in the years and decades to come, and satellite navigation has proven to be the most effective guidance for such capability. The continued development of satellite navigation alternatives to GPS thus will bear considerable watching from a military perspective, if not a commercial one.

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