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Al Qaeda: The Insignificance of bin Laden's Latest Message
ANWAR AMRO/AFP/Getty Images Lebanese women protesting Israel’s military operation in Gaza on the same day Osama bin Laden released a message criticizing the Gaza offensive As-Sahab, al Qaeda’s media arm, released an audio recording of Osama bin Laden on Jan. 14. The message is the first from bin Laden since May 2008. However, even if the tape were recorded recently (and there is not conclusive evidence that it was), the threats and warnings issued by bin Laden are neither new nor particularly threatening. Issuing messages appears to be all bin Laden can do lately — hardly indicative of the level of capability needed to maintain recruiting efforts and ensure al Qaeda’s position as the vanguard of the militant Islamic movement. Analysis In his first audio message since May 2008, al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden issued an audio recording through As-Sahab, al Qaeda’s media arm, on Jan. 14. The message comprised statements about the ongoing Israeli operation in Gaza and warnings to U.S. President George W. Bush’s successor about the challenges of inheriting the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. In the message, bin Laden focuses on Bush and his cooperation with Israel in its operation against Hamas in the Gaza strip, and he urges Muslims to support the mujahideen with “money and men.” He goes on to link the world’s economic troubles to the United States’ missions in Iraq and Afghanistan, saying that if the next U.S. president “withdraws from the war, that would be a military defeat, and if he goes on with it, he’ll drown in economic crisis.”
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Bin Laden and the core al Qaeda leadership (known as al Qaeda prime) do not matter much
anymore, beyond their symbolic power. The continual release of statements without attacks means that
these tapes are falling on deaf ears. Al Qaeda prime has failed to pull off an operation since the
London bombings in 2005 — and even that attack appears to have involved only a tangential
link to the grassroots jihadist network behind the plot. Even in South Asia, where al Qaeda is active, it relies heavily on local and regional allies for cover. Bin Laden has become an old
revolutionary who refuses to retire though his time has passed.
While the tape’s content appears to indicate that it was made recently, it has not yet been confirmed that it is an entirely new communication. From what STRATFOR has read of the statement so far, bin Laden does not even mention two of the incidents that have occurred to strengthen al Qaeda since his last message: the Nov. 26 attacks in Mumbai and militants’ gains in northwest Pakistan. Some other strange omissions include the failure to mention U.S. President-elect Barack Obama by name (bin Laden refers only to “Bush’s successor,” although he does reportedly directly quote Vice President-elect Joe Biden) and the absence of the online advertising and hype that usually precede such a release from bin Laden. The fact that bin Laden spent most of the message railing against the United States and Israel for the actions in Gaza does not mean that the tape is recent. Israel has constantly been involved in Gaza operations, and this subject has been one of bin Laden’s main grievances on which he has spoken frequently. Compared to the message released Jan. 6 by Ayman al-Zawahiri (bin Laden’s deputy), which commented specifically on Obama and on Egypt’s failure to intervene in the Israeli strikes against Gaza, this message appears to go into much less detail. Regardless of the content of bin Laden’s message, the fact remains that the connection between these tapes and attacks carried out by al Qaeda prime is very weak. This is the seventh tape (counting both audio and video) bin Laden has made since 2007 with no significant attack to back it up. In recent years, al Qaeda prime has really posed a physical threat only to South Asia — an area of operations whose size hardly corresponds to al Qaeda prime’s frequent calls for global jihad. Without attacks to back it up, rhetoric appears to be bin Laden’s sole remaining weapon. And meanwhile, other militant Islamist groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, and countries like Iran, are gaining much greater prestige as they confront their traditional enemies, like Israel, head-on. Without the street credibility of being a legitimate revolutionary threat, bin Laden and al Qaeda prime lose the ability to attract recruits and money — and bin Laden’s appeal to supporters for both in his latest message is evidence of his declining stature. Some of the omissions surrounding the tape also indicate al Qaeda prime’s struggle to stay alive. If al Qaeda were healthy, a mention of the Mumbai attacks and the gains militants have made against the government in northwestern Pakistan would have been expected. However, al Qaeda prime’s inability to capitalize on those gains shows just how much U.S. airstrikes have pinned the group down. The failure to advertise the message and hype its release indicates that al Qaeda prime faces a significant risk in getting an original tape from the source and distributing it online. Tipping off the United States that a tape would soon be released could compromise communication networks already worn thin by U.S. strikes in northwestern Pakistan. Bin Laden (and other al Qadea prime talking heads) will continue to make these tapes and, given that the al Qaeda leader has orchestrated successful attacks in the past, some will continue to listen to him. But without a major action to back up his threats, bin Laden’s influence over the militant Islamist movement will fade. However, this does not mean the militant Islamist movement itself will fade. As the actions of groups like Hamas and Hezbollah (and Hezbollah’s patron, Iran) show, plenty of people are prepared to become the world’s top Islamist militant.
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