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As the war against terrorism focuses on Europe and the tribal hinterlands of Afghanistan and Pakistan, Islamist militant organizations are likely to seek sanctuary elsewhere. Their choices are likely to focus on relatively lawless areas with substantial Muslim populations, areas like the Balkans -- and North and West Africa, which are beginning to come under greater scrutiny due to reported connections with the March 11 bombings in Madrid.
As U.S. military and intelligence assets have been spread increasingly thin, the United States has sought regional allies willing to carry out counterterrorism operations with minimal U.S. support. This strategy has been used in Western Europe and in East Asia, where the United States has essentially appointed Australia as its regional deputy. The United States will seek to extend this strategy to areas that are ripe for exploitation by militant organizations.
Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, Libya, Chad, Mauritania, Mali and Niger have been largely overlooked by U.S. military and intelligence agencies, which have been preoccupied with operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and an ongoing commitment on the Korean peninsula. Additionally, Western European countries do not yet possess the central command authority, unified foreign policy and military power necessary to carry out significant counterterrorism operations in North and West Africa.
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