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In a Dec. 14 live televised speech, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad denied that the Holocaust happened, saying the Jewish nation had "invented a myth that Jews were massacred and place this above God, religion, and prophets." Ahmadinejad's comments, which drew immediate responses from both the European Union and Israel, only inflamed political tensions between Israel and Iran.
The Israeli government is moving swiftly into a position where it will be forced to decide at what point Iran will move beyond Israel's national security interests, referred to as a "red line." Iran could begin enriching uranium as soon as March 2006 and start producing nuclear weapons in three years, according to a Dec. 13 Israeli army assessment given to the Israeli Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz also warned the committee that Iran will reach the "point of no return" regarding its nuclear capability by the end of March 2006. Halutz's comments echoed those made by U.N. nuclear watchdog head Mohamed ElBaradei.
Though Israel certainly commands the weaponry to effectively take out Iranian nuclear facilities, the strike route is more problematic. Israel could attack via Iraq, a path that would require U.S. cooperation (which Israel certainly could secure) but that might not be the most practical option. Israel could ask Saudi Arabia for cooperation, but the Saudis would not be likely to acquiesce. The third -- and pragmatically best, though not trouble-free -- option would be to ask Turkey to use its airspace to launch attacks against Iran's nuclear facilities.
Israel striking Iran via Iraq with U.S. collusion is a moot point. If Washington finds itself ready to use force against Tehran, it would be more politically expedient for the United States to attack Iran alone and avoid the political blowback of attacking a Muslim country jointly with Israel. However, with more to lose if Iran becomes nuclear, Israel would have more incentive to strike than the United States would. In that case, the Israelis would be prepared to act unilaterally, without Washington's assistance -- meaning without using Iraqi airspace -- or perhaps even publicly admitted knowledge. However, if Washington or Israel should launch a strike against Iran, the two allies will coordinate with each other -- probably behind the scenes.
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