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A foreign diplomatic source in Port-au-Prince told Stratfor on Feb. 26 that Haitian President Jean-Bertrand Aristide is believed to have an aircraft ready for a quick departure from Haiti before rebels seize the capital city. Stratfor has been unable to confirm the accuracy of this report.
However, Aristide's personal security detail consists almost entirely of former U.S. soldiers -- paid to protect him, but likely unwilling to die for him. If Port-au-Prince falls, Aristide's security detail likely will leave the country with the president. Aristide has vowed to die fighting, in the presidential palace, but Stratfor would be surprised if he chooses to be a martyr.
A week ago, the United States, France, Canada and the Organization of American States (OAS) proposed a national unity government that would keep Aristide as president, bring the opposition into the government as prime minister and Cabinet members, and hold early general elections.
With his government and country imploding, Aristide agreed to the proposal. However, opposition political leaders rejected it and demanded his immediate resignation. Rebel leaders demanded that Aristide resign immediately, saying the violence would cease as soon as he leaves the presidency. France continues to call for a national unity government, but Paris also called for Aristide's resignation on Feb. 25.
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