Free Preview of Members-Only Content
To view the requested intelligence, you must be a Stratfor.com member.
Russian President Vladimir Putin broke out an old supply of bile on Wednesday when he called for permanent increases in the capabilities of both the military and the FSB — the Russian successor to the Soviet KGB.
Stratfor never takes such statements from people who possess nuclear capabilities lightly. But, in this case, the apparent militancy behind the comment is sadly funny. Russia has had a hard run since the end of the Cold War, facing military, social, economic, medical and political declines. But all of these pale in comparison to — and feed into — the worst disaster of all: Russia’s demographic collapse.
Low birth rates, combined with soaring death rates — particularly among men between the ages of 30 and 55 — have saddled the country with the worst demographic picture in centuries of any nation that is not at war. Even Russian government demographers admit the population is dropping by about 750,000 people per year, just as the average Russian grows older and, therefore, less productive. Most independent demographers estimate that by 2050 Russia’s population will have decreased by one-third of its current total, approximately 140 million. The only reason Russia lacks a pension crisis like those many other developed states are experiencing is that, a few years back, Moscow moved the retirement age past the (falling) average age of death. As a country, Russia is — quite literally — dying.
So why the chest beating and saber rattling? What does Russia have to worry about? Is the Cold War not over? Well, yes and no.
| Stratfor Members, please log in at the top left hand corner |
