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Col. Adam Rakis, who leads a faction of rebels in Chad, said on Wednesday that reinforcements are pouring into the region and that a coup will be attempted on or before the country's May 3 presidential election.

We normally would not comment on such threats in minor states, but Chad is in a bit of a unique situation. First, the government of Idriss Deby is one of the reasons (unofficially, of course) why the Darfur region of Sudan is so unstable. Among Deby's favorite tools are the ethnic Zagawa militias, which he has used to overthrow a government in the Central African Republic to the south and to attempt something similar in Sudan, to the east. A certain amount of activity of this sort is par for the course in Central Africa, but in the mind of leaders in Khartoum, Deby crossed the line of what could be perceived as acceptable some time ago; thus, Sudan has been returning the favor by funding rebels on Chad's side of the border.

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