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Russian President Dmitri Medvedev on Tuesday recognized the independence of two regions in the territory of the former Soviet republic of Georgia: Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russia and Georgia fought a brief war over the territories earlier this month which Russia clearly won. Now Russia will undoubtedly enter into “formal” negotiations with the two “states” about either long-term military staging agreements or formal annexation.
The West, which has consistently backed the idea of Georgia’s territorial integrity, broadly condemned the move, but has taken no action beyond rhetoric. Nor is it likely to in the short term. The West could deploy naval forces that can outmaneuver and box in Russia as a whole, but that requires time and political will. In the meantime, Russia has forces on the ground in the two territories and loads more nearby. The West doesn’t. The Russians clearly are the ones determining the reality on the ground, and that — for now — is that.
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