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Pakistan has been rife with speculation that President Pervez Musharraf is trying to delay by a year parliamentary elections that are scheduled for Feb. 18. Rumors continued on Monday that Musharraf has been negotiating behind the scenes with the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) to replace the current caretaker government with an interim administration that would represent a broader political spectrum. However, Stratfor sources say neither party is willing to do business with the former general on this matter, which means the elections are still on track.
Musharraf’s need to delay the elections is obvious: In any relatively free and fair election — especially after the assassination of its leader and two-term former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto — the PPP would win the largest number of seats. The party therefore would be leading a coalition government engaged with the president in a tug-of-war for supremacy. Unlike in the 2002 elections, when he was able to indulge in an elaborate scheme of electoral engineering, Musharraf is operating with far fewer levers at his disposal, especially because he is now sharing power with new military chief Gen. Ashfaq Kayani. Kayani is trying to steer the military intelligence establishment clear of the political process. Further, should the government’s allies win a disproportionately large number of seats, the vote would be viewed as fraudulent, exacerbating the current crisis of governance that plagues the Musharraf administration.
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